Let's see if we have an announcement next week hopefully as soon as Monday...we.should be getting close...looks like BIG was forming a shallow cup & handle as part of the flag and ready to move higher...Go BIG!!!
Lyong222, Thanks for the information. I am aware of alot of your points. If you don't mind if I have any follow up responses I will post them on the TIVO board. Lets keep this board open for BIG holders.
Go BIG !!!
Here are 4 very important details on Tivo:
1. But, some traders hope it will win a legal case against EchoStar and Dish Network in a decision expected in April or May. One analyst at Gabelli said TIVO could more than double if it prevails.
2. This week, well-known hedge fund Citadel Investment Group disclosed it had taken a 5.3% stake in digital video recorder maker TiVo.
TiVo is an intellectual property company if nothing else. The company has 196 patents issued and another 371 applications outstanding. And TiVo has been rigorously litigating competitors it thinks are infringing.
3. Of course, Citadel may think Apple will take a suggestion to buy TiVo to pump up the Apple TV.
4. Rumor that Google may want Tivo.
Well, there is the difference. You did not buy at 42.45 like I did. I think you said you got in late last year. You are letting your winner run a little. I have a friend who likes the phrase, "let your winners run and cut the losers" when they have fallen a certain percentage, that is more than you thought it could fall. All BIG shareholders have to pick a price at which to sell. Hopefully the PE people take that decision out of our hands.
Infosource: the largest open interests is in the May calls of all strikes. The calendar spread suggested, was to buy the August and sell the Aprils. I decided to give the process more time and bought the January. Some of the large volume in May, could be option holders that are rolling out of April (or maybe March on the 18th of March) and into May because "nothing" seems to be happening. I'd think these court hearings are not secrets like the supposedly secret auction of BIG. The dates of these hearings should be very public. The results may be a secret until the judge makes his decision. At that instant, the stock could double. I'm in it as a trade and not wanting to be a long time TIVO shareholder. If hearings are under way now, or the court has the closing arguments and will rule at some unknown date in the future, then it could be like a BIG takeover. You wake up and there is the news staring you in the face. Looking at the chart the stock has basically been between 3-4 and 10-12 since 2001. Except for the big spike in early 2010 to almost 20. That surely was a news driven spike and this company is not making money. It's sort of like Rambus, a stock that trades on legal rulings in it's favor. Hopefully, BIG gets done after the 15th, and as mentioned by someone else, FRED may be another interesting PE possibility. I've never owned retail stocks, so I'm staying with BIG until it is over, and then might take a peek further at FRED. I'm guessing with my options, that BIG stays between 40 and 45 for the next 3 weeks. I find that to be a fairly safe bet. But, who knows the event could happen before then.
The judge so far, is on the side of Tivo, so I've got a small $710 bet that they prevail against Echostar and Dish. I see big old Microsoft is in it too. The stock may move up and down with each set of legal events. Microsoft can afford to pay Tivo, whatever a court might award. Big dollars, maybe more than Tivo is even capable of earning on it's own. And no one has stepped up to try, to own Tivo. It may be a winner "via the courts" or a go away and die company.
In the mean time my Tivo $710 January 15 calls will sit and rot, and GO BIG.......
Lyong222, Thanks again. This article is a pretty good summary on what is contained in the 10-k filing. It still find it curious to see continued above average option vols. for May. It could be that because Tivo mentioned a possible decision forth coming in first half of 2011, that may rule out the next options calendar which begins in AUG.
Well, that is the beauty of just buying shares. I don't care about the timing. A deal on April 14, April 16 or May 14 suits me just fine. Obviously, the sooner the better.
If it makes you sleep better at night, then by all means have at your hedging. I am confident a deal will be consummated but I have no idea when. I'm not into guessing as I would inevitable guess wrong half the time and drive my returns lower. Thus I just purchase the shares outright and wait.
breakthebank: options are becoming more popular among ordinary investors.
I took a little risk by selling the March 42.50 calls, 4 days before the expired. I won that gamble, that no deal would happen in those 4 days, so my July 50 calls cost me nothing. They are free to let the stock be taken out at $50 or higher and 10 contracts is $1000 per $1 of stock move.
I bought alot of shares and then looked at the chart and noticed that I had bought a little late in the game, as it already had a run up on the rumor. And their earnings helped it hold that level and move up some more. So, I felt I needed puts to protect my stock. So, I gambled again, if you want to call it that, by selling the April 45 calls against my stock and created a put spread by selling the April 40 puts. If the deal happens after April 15th, I'm in great shape. Any rise in stock price is all profit both for my stock, and my options. And my put option insurance will have been paid for with option selling. If the deal is after April 15th my profits are "not" capped.
A deal before then, and yes they are, 5.3% gain for my stock and unlimited profits on my call options above $50. It's easier to sleep at night knowing the stock could, in theory go back to $30 and my puts are there to protect me, and call option selling can get my stock out of a gamble on a deal that failed. It's full steam ahead for BIG shareholders, if they do not mind me hoping the deal is after April 15th.
here it is March 8th, you read down below where Tivo expects ruling first half of 2011.