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Big Lots Inc. Message Board

  • A Yahoo! User Dec 19, 2012 11:00 AM Flag

    SHRT SQUEEZE $BIG ~ $30 's on horizon

    Bullish chart ~ BIG is a good retail discounter @ 10 x's fwd earnings - Big Lots stores are always busy. There are quite a few in the N.E. and I shop there for random needs when I don't want to deal with the lines and parking hassles at wal- mart GO BIG !! I see potential here if the incoming CEO has any common sense

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • BIG is probably one of the most poorly understood stocks on the market. Right now, it's in the ideal buy window, roughly within 10% of the annual low. It's coming up on the best quarter in it's history. It will likely beat 4Q earnings estimates as well, and will likely have it's new Canadian stores swing to a profit. It is set to hit a record high.

      BIG has a defined pattern, which I have studied for 6 years, and invested in for four. The low occurs in Nov/Dec, the high in March/April. In the last three years, the annual highs have fallen between mid-March and mid-April. The lowest of those highs was over $41 (2010), $44+ in 2011, $47.22 in 2012. Each year, the high has risen around $3. If the pattern holds, a share bought today at $29 will be worth somewhere between $41 and $50 around April 1.

      Last year, I made $26K on a modest play on this pattern. This year is set up to have the greatest potential ever. I have a large position now; and I expect last year's gain will look like pocket change.

      The time to buy is now, the ideal buy window is closing any day.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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