Interesting action on the March puts. Whoever is holding over 6,000 of the 27.5 and 30 puts is just sitting there doing nothing. No panic selling, no second-guessing, no nothing. They are just holding tight. And somebody opened up a new position in the 32.5 puts that is larger than yesterday’s open interest.
Why sell for a loss? How do you know they didn't SELL the puts or that they don't own the stock and the puts are a hedge against gains that they have made just in case the stock falls?
If you take at a look at the March options, you can see there is some serious activity in the 27.5 and 30 puts. High open interest, and yesterday there was heavy volume. Of course, the question is whether it is buying or selling. Since these are out of the money puts, I would guess that it is buying. If I thought the puts would drop, I would short-sell in the money puts and let them drop out of the money. If I thought the puts would rise, I would buy out of the money puts and let them rise in the money.
Take a look at the calls. I have 100 April 37.50, (my highest strike) bought for $3200. they were worth 7K at opening today, and jumped to 10. However, the ask/bid is now 1.10/1.20, so they may well be worth 12K before the day is over. Tomorrow will continue with more of the same. Lot of money made on options, but a lot is lost too. Dangerous business for the inexperienced or unwise.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Had to cut short the message above for the opening bell.
I expect earnings to beat estimates, probably by .10-20 cents. I also expect the Canadian group to come in at even or possibly swing to profit. The upward force on share price will be increased by either of those, especially if they bring it in green.
It's a very strange year, and off-pattern due to the insider probe- but bear in mind, any idiot that follows this stock would have known that buying at the April high would be followed by a decline into summer. The idiots that don't follow or research and buy at the high are the ones who then initiate lawsuits and claim the price drop that follows every year was some kind of secret insider knowledge used to screw them. That case is BS, but it is possible that CEO Fishman made some unintentional tech error in his sale, since the rules for that are somewhat like a simon-says game.
The impact of the probe is mostly psychological on investors; the substance of it is much less.
We have a fair shot at seeing the balloon go up today, about 10 days late. I'm up over 4K on it already this morning, planning on another 100K within 60 days.... then I'm off to the Keys to play in the sun and catch BIG fish!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
After hours trading over 7.5 M shares. Only 20 trades were 3-figure sizes. 24 were 4-figure, 34 were 5 and up- and two trades were over a million shares. Trades require both a buyer and a seller. Since price didn't change appreciably (up .09) in after hours, it's more of a transfer between believers of different ideas. It does show that some very big hitters are involved, but nothing I can find tells me what the motivation is. What is strange is that so far this morning no pre-market trades have occurred.
I intensely research and follow this stock, and I have a very large position.
Not a mistake according to MarketWatch and the Nasdaq:/marketstate/country/us
Big Lots Inc.
Feb 13, 2013, 4:40 p.m.
Quotes are delayed by 20 min
After Hours Volume: After Hours High: After Hours Low: 7,506,295 $ 33.66
(16:01:17 PM) $ 33.484
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/big/after-hours#ixzz2KqptwcjT