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Big Lots Inc. Message Board

  • b_zerkley b_zerkley May 21, 1999 8:21 AM Flag

    eToys hits $85...

    or $7.7B mkt cap. My estimate of a KBtoys spin
    off being worth $2B is way off. This could double CNS
    market cap by year end, especially if they spin off the
    company to the holders after the IPO. Merrill Lynch was
    right, this is worth $60 (plus). Good investing.

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    • Why is this stock dropping so quickly??? Earnings
      were a bit better than estimates. The e-toy thing
      looks good. Star Wars has to be driving the business on
      the toy side. The closeout stores that I have visited
      in my area look better than ever. Should I sell now?
      Is there a turnaround in the future??

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    • New Merrill update (when CNS was $31) says that
      the weakness is related to the internet in two
      ways:
      1) Concerns that on line toy sales will cut into
      traditional store sales and therefore cut overall margins,
      and;
      2) alot of players are moving into online toy sales
      besides eToys, therefore reducing online valuations
      overall.
      Merrill believes that the online winners will be the
      existing players such as ToysRUS and K-B because of their
      extra leverage and name brand awareness. Unfortunately,
      this will have to play out to see if it holds true.
      Also, and the proposed KBToys IPO is 6 months or more
      away and in internet mania that's a
      lifetime.

      Merrill also said that KB was only showing 3-4% same
      store sales growth this quarter versus a 5% plan (due
      to less than expected star wars sales). However,
      they also said that several other divisions were
      EXCEEDING their targets and that 2Q earnings were on plan.
      They again stated their $60 target and a 1-1 buy
      rating. Me, I recently doubled up at $25 and change.
      However,this drama may take 9 months to play out...so it
      depends on your time horizon if you want to see it
      through. Good investing.

    • Our sources indicate that the Q2 comp sales trend
      at KB is consistent with the YTD comp sales reported
      at EOM May (+5.8%). While June comps were not as
      strong as May, KB is currently cycling a number of
      strong LY video game releases the did not have TY
      counterparts. July comp sales are, at this point, ahead of
      June's.

      Nevertheless, the sudden downdraft in the stock price is
      disconcerting, to say the least. This is clearly a case of The
      Street penalizing a bricks and mortar retailer for a
      logical, albeit tardy, e-tailing strategy that is
      temporarily dilutive, vs. rewarding a no earnings e-tailer
      for the same approach.

    • Reply is appreciated...Hope Merrill is right or you can find my
      posting under TIMEX$00 in the future!!!!!

    • could someone explain the significance of street.com put information.

    • Toy comps suck and are below expectations! Also
      the performance of the OL/BL chain is below some
      investors' expectations, especially given the easy YOY
      comparison of (9%). The only thing working right now is
      MFI!

      And as far as the internet goes, the sales estimates
      for the on-line cos. exceed the expected growth of
      the toy industry. In
      other words, bricks&mortar
      lose share, which probably means weak toy comps this
      x-mas. Unless it is a blowout x-mas.

    • (stkpkr00) you are wrong. Toy comps are on company plan albeit on the lower end of the range. Video is down substantially, but core toys holding well and making up on margin what losing in rev.

    • Well not for me! I don't eat expired cornflakes
      apparently shipped back from Japan. Things that can be
      bought elsewhere for the same price or better, and you
      don't have to deal with rude inbred staff and
      management. I could here the banjos playing as I left to call
      my broker. Never to return again!!!!

    • View More Messages
 
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