During the last couple of months TINY stock went into a tailspin. The pyramid that TINY was based on for years required a constant inflow of free money from foolish investors through issuance of new stock.
With the stock price around $9 and falling they are not able to use this trick anymore. What remains is about $50M of cash. In the past they managed to waste about $1 on the salaries and other expenses for each $1 invested. Having this my estimate is they have about $30M to support the portfolio companies. Of this amount, probably only $20M can be spent before the panic starts. Having the burn rate of the existing portfolio companies, this $20M will last for less than a year. Remember that they also need to show new companies from time to time - the news buzz which supports the stock.
In the past, when a portfolio company would need more money TINY would bring an outside investor. The outside investor would normally require TINY to coinvest to show TINY's confidence in the portfolio company. With no money available to coinvest, TINY will either not be able to bring an outside investor, or would need to accept a terrible dilution. To put this in simple words, TINY is now a lame duck, other VCs know it and will be happy to eat TINY alive. Those of you that dealt with VCs know they are mean mean people. Nobody is going to care about TINY anymore.
I expect TINY to be finished in less than 12 months. The intrinsic value of a TINY share is therefore $0. Since TINY management understands this too, we will probably see TINY executives jumping the ship in the near future. Mr. Harris retires soon anyway - he does not care, especially after having made millions in 2007. The younger ones are probably already starting job search.
And one more thing - having the past actions of TINY management, they could not care less about the shareholders. I fully expect that when the panic starts internally (and it probably already did) they will decide to issue stock one last time to continue this agony a little longer. This is when you will see the real crash.
Everything is getting hit right now, it's not just TINY. Right now, Google is down 7.7% today, AAPL is down 17%, RIMM is down 9.75% and TINY is down 6.9%. I'm not even going to get into the financial stocks!
Your prediction was for this stock / company to be hit, not the whole market. What makes you think the current price slump is due to the reasons you gave, rather than the general market negativity?
You're arguments are based upon unfounded facts and assumptions. There is NOTHING to support any of the factual assertions! I challenge you to provide links and/or the bases of ALL your claims. IMO I do not buy or sell a stock because some anonymous poster tells me to. I buy or sell based on my own due diligence, and I'm holding ALL of my shares long. The reality is the majority of TINY's portfolio companies are growing fast. All patient long-term investors will be rewarded handsomely.
i stevepearson , aka steve p x3 , aka tiny pecker declare myself a a huge moron
i post using four alias to confuse readers and pump up my own postings
i am a true idiot poster from canada who knows nothing about nanotech , TINY , or america
There will be trading virtories long and short ahead. Yes, the business model sucks, they continually can not get any companies to IPO and their $$$ dewindles! Cover around 5 and play the pops (on BS news about a maybe story) and short again.
But you explained my concerns well. This should give all longs reason to sell today.
Agree with everything small penis says, except if some of their portfolio goes public with an IPO then big bucks flows in. This is a big speculative stock, and the risks ARE high; also the management has a big appetite for our money, which would be OK if the risk pays off; otherwise my penis will be small too.
O.K....let's say you have a valid pt.....Now I have taken the short side on many trades,so lets look at the risk/reward...slow bleed to 7's if you are right, vs...wake up one morning to a 5pt pop with a continued run to the 20's poss 30's depending on which co. files S1. Now are the odds greater now in '07/'08 for a filing or less? Don't forget the portfolio has revenues in the 150mill range and NSPH just went public with $0 revenue. Oh, these guys have survived since 1981...by your measure...pure luck lol.
There do not have a single successful company which can go IPO.
In addition, the IPO window is closed, we are in the global credit crunch now.
Read what WSJ says:
IPOs May Face Chilly Climate
Wall Street Journal - Dec 9, 2007
"Right now, quite frankly, I think despite the pipeline being very full, the underwriters and companies are dubious as to whether or not the window will be even partially open if we come closer to a recessionary environment," says Scott Sweet, managing director of IPOBoutique.com, an IPO-research service in Tampa, Fla.
To all just a little reminder as to why this stock is a "GREAT" investment now and in the future.
Please pay close attention to the paragraph on the insider transactions and how it is actually good for the company and non-dilutive.
TINY will rock just be patient.
One acronym that will boost TINY in '08: IPO
I believe that the stock has taken a beating in the past couple of weeks due to loss selling AND due to some selling from speculators of a possible IPO before year-end. I'm optimistic that we'll see an IPO (or possibly more than one) in 2008.