Teerod, you are correct that the "bloom is off the rose," as they say, with respect to hype. That is obviously not good for TINY stock prices, but the underlying facts are stronger than ever. The companies in TINY's portfolio are why I'm holding for the long term.
As others have pointed out, it's not the nanotechnology itself that will bring big wins... it's what they do with it. After the Internet stock market bubble burst, it didn't mean the Internet was gone... it was just the irrational hype that was gone. Google went public in 2004, and has since gone up 600%. I'm not looking for a nano bubble to drive up prices (although I won't fight it if it comes back)... I'm hoping one of TINY's companies leverages nano the way Google leveraged the Internet.
The potential is there, and the diversity of TINY reduces a lot of the risk.
Tiny has recently gotten my attention for all the reasons you listed.
I'm also thinking that they have knowledgeable people researching companies more thoroughly than I could.
One more thing that I like is that many of TINY's holdings are stll private, so it is a way to get exposure to a basket - like an index or ETF.
I think this is a "buy-and-hold" for 10+ years from now.
teerod, a lot has happened over the last 4 years ... whereas in the past, there was a dearth of meaningful activity other than continuous investments, capital raises resulting in further dilution, and a steady burn ... now, a handful of TINY's portfolio have matured to provide exits this year (3 so far: neophotonics, biovex, solazyme, and two more with letters of intent to be acquired) ... and another handful are maturing to provide more possible exits over the next few years ...
all in all, TINY has never looked better w respect to the strength, momentum, and maturity of their portfolio ... what's really needed now is for TINY mgmt to spread the word ... i think the solazyme IPO will help a lot in this regard ...
if you look at the trading volume recently, it has been very weak ... about half the daily average ... all we need is for one strong buyer to come in to initiate stock momentum ... 2 or 3 buyers will really move the stock as it now trades "thinly" ...
anyways, i think TINY's value is justified at at least 1.5x NAV (=$7+) ... i hope that TINY's mgmt can convince institutional buyers the same ...
TINY looks good now because it has absolutely sucked for the last 5 years. I am in for the long term but I am afraid I will be dead and buried before this ever breaks even. Management is a no show and inept.
<<if you look at the trading volume recently, it has been very weak ... about half the daily average ... >>
I agree. we've been trading within a tight range since 3/23 and lately on lower volume. That means this range is starting to have less interested sellers and buyers. A break usually follows this pattern often a continuation of the previous leg (from 3/16), in our case to the upside. Hope I'm right but and I just bought more just now at 5.37
The hardest thing for institutions is to "load up" because of the later problem of unloading what will still be a small market stock. On the other hand institutions can use it to increase their own NAV as the price of TINY moves higher.
Yeah, the nanotechnology hype is pretty much out the window, but that is really not the point of TINY. Yes they still use it as an overarching theme for their investments, but for some of these companies I'd be hard pressed to clearly define what is so "nano" about their technology or products beyond being based on advanced electronics or molecules. But that is probably because I am not a scientist; I suppose to someone who is immersed in this stuff, there are clearcut significant nanotechnology-based differences that set these companies apart. I guess.
But utilitzing nanotechnology is not an end in itself, it is just a means to an end, and I am more concerned with whether the companies that TINY invests in can get valuable products to market in a profitable way. Many of their companies are on the verge of doing just that.
Innovalight: Has signed up many of the major PV solar panel makers to use its silicon ink in the manufacture of solar panels, because using that ink results in more electricity being produced from a given quantity of sunlight, that is, better efficiency.
Bridgelux: Recently announced a breakthrough in using silicon substrates for LED lighting, which apparently is a major step forward in bringing the cost of LED bulbs down to $5 for something comparable to a 100W bulb in the next few years.
ABS Materials has this weird fiber material that grabs contaminants out of water, leaving just clean water behind.
Solazyme and Kovio have already been discussed a lot elsewhere. You do know Solazyme recently filed an
S-1 to go public this year, right? That should prove to be a very big winner for TINY.
It is entirely possible that TINY's NAV reaches a record high in Q4 this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it at least double within 4 years. Of course that means a lot of things have to go right, but if that happens, the stock will command a higher premium than the slight one it has now, which could mean at least a four-bagger from current levels.
Everyone who responds to this will, unless you are in cahoots with another short or two hoping to scalp .05 off the price.
Ahh, maybe I am being too sensitive. This just seems like a prelude to a little short rhetoric.
Who else thinks it has a serious future?
Ha, if you think I believe message board comments have any influence my investment decisions, you and I wouldnt agree on too much. I also dont trade too much and hardly every short. The fact there has been less hype when I look for entry points is a big plus. I try to discipline myself on avoiding hype and looking for good companies with negative sentiment.
Other than that, thanks for everyone's informative feedback.
The reason I'm looking at it again is not because of the technology they invest in, but rather the business they are in. I think there are opportunities right now to invest in VC incubators. I think deal flow is picking up pretty substantially.