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Terex Corporation Message Board

  • banmate7 banmate7 Apr 29, 2013 2:39 PM Flag

    A Long Suffering Long...Any Thoughts On Future

    I am averaged in at $72 a share, having bought in during the summer of 2008. Obviously I'm down 60% overall. This is one of the few investments I have made that has not done well. I regret that I saw this as a potential Caterpillar, chasing growth as opposed to sticking with my usual value investing philosophy.

    I'm not sure what to do here. I can obviously hold and wait, hoping to break even in a reasonable amount of time. I think we're on the cusp of a secular bull market, which in no small part will be driven by infrastructure development globally. However, Terex has obviously not ridden growth in China like Caterpillar has.

    I'm not crazy about fundamentals here. The PE is 30, with a forward PE of 11, nothing too compelling. $2 billion debt on $.5 billion cash flow isn't too positive either. I guess I should have doubled down when it was around $12 - $20...but even then, I just have had misgivings on this company.

    Any thoughts?

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    • Hey, we've all been there at one time or another on a stock...

      (IMHO)

      The couple of times I got way down on a stock (VLO, FCX come to mind) like you are, the only way out is to average down. I did that on VLO just recently. Had some with a basis of like $70. Averaged down in the mid-20's, and sold recently for a net gain on the entire position.

      Credit Suisse has a $46 52-week target on TEX. You might consider adding shares to position yourself in a break-even situation at that price level. Absent that, you'll be holding TEX a LONG time if you are waiting for $72 to break even.

      Even at today's $31 price, I think TEX is a decent buy for the next 12-months.... I recently sold puts and bought calls on TEX. I already own several hundred shares that I intend to hold to the low 40's....

      Best of luck to you...

    • Personally I would stick around until 2015, when EPS is expected to be $5-6. I think you should be at break even early in 2015. IMHO

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
TEX
29.82+0.59(+2.02%)Nov 20 4:00 PMEST

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