1. There's record NYSE short interest, it'll power us higher!
the easiest way to make money is to go with the trend, those who picked tops and bottoms never made it in this game.
That said, taking profit is always OK.
I actually took some profit today ahead of the payroll number as a caution.
My research shows that unemployment will miss by 20k. However, in the past 2 months bad news are taken as good news, so I would not be shorting until i actually see the numbers.
As far as I am concerned, china is a non issue. Chinese shares are over valued, that's because the government wants to take money from their citizens legally! Crooks... they are still communists. Chinese market has little to do with the US market even in this global economy.
One thing that I see that could spoil the market is inflation. Bond market suggests that rates will sky rocket higher to 6-7% in the next 2 years. That's a couple of years out.. though.
Medium term: To summarize, stay long but take some profits. Wait at least until end of june (2-5% higher) to short.
Short term: dont' fight the tape, short interest is at record and it will take us higher on any excuse... short sqeeeze works great on low volume days....