I'm wondering if I can infer something from the spread between DIA and DOW/100.
At this moment the DOW is at 12591 and DIA is at 125.82. I'm tempted to believe that means that most people trading the DIA think the DOW will go down, but as the spread gets narrower it means that fewer people think it will go down.
A while back I saw DIA was above Dow/100. I thought that meant that most people thought DOW was going up.
IMO not really. The spread on the etf to indices often means little from my experience. Same goes for ETF or indices to futures (I trade the dow mini futures).
http://tradersbase.com/forum/showthread.php?p=2421 Here's my analysis of the DIA if you're interested, should apply to the broad market though as all the major etf's are setup very similar right now. We do lots of TA over on the TradersBASE board and blog, I wish I could post charts in here. Stop in and sign up, we are looking for more members.