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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Message Board

  • bwaltz68 bwaltz68 Oct 10, 2008 11:26 PM Flag

    Dow going to 7800 because

    You have to look at the % of exports that will decline as a result of the economic slowdown in countries facing housing bubble problems as well: Britain, Australia, Spain, Ireland, Norway, France

    They represent about 0.6% of GDP and you have to ask yourself how this is going to cause unemployment rate to increase and effect spending.

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    • archofangels Oct 14, 2008 6:58 PM Flag

      They exist,I am one of them,and have been liquid(except for a quickie trade now and then)for 6yrs now. Boring and LOW returns.But to your post, you are right on the mark. Most retail money flows through mutual funds and their charters require,for the most part,nearly 100% exposure to equities. Demographics suggest 401k balances should be viewed as weak money from an equity point of view as many will be shaken out by the % loss and the newly realized need for fixed returns if not now then in the not too distant future. Investing isn't about style. In my opinion it's about risk premium. The risk premium dictates where smart money flows. This is not to say the majority can't make you look like an idiot,because it can and does,especially when the gov. encourages the GDP to grow by lowering credit standards.Back on point, you are correct in your "generation of investors" observation. It is the same generation that seems to seek happiness through a credit card. Perhaps the baby boomers should for the most part be seen as a bubble in this respect also. The third generation. The generation often referred to as the ones who loose all they have been given.

    • I think the DOW will eventually go to 6800, and that's when it will be finally time to buy for some REALLY Crazy prices!!

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