I trade the market and I do not take directional bets, but I have the
feeling the Dow will close this year at around 10k, rather than at 8k.
The only thing has been working lately was shorting the market and one
has to be very careful at taking new short positions now when almost
everybody is shorting. Going with the big crowd only makes you money
in the beginning...in the end the crowd always loses. I have the
feeling the big crowd is short now. Someday, they will run to cover
and markets will rally big time. That day hasn't come yet, but it
Far to much doom and gloom on yahoo.
Was ok when Dow was 12k but now looks way oversold. Co cutting staff and cutting costs, That is a huge set up for a strong rebound in profits.
Still I see NO RETURN of the 2003-2007 SP500 profit levels of 10% year over year. They will be maybe 60-70% of past proft cycles. Thus more of a L recovery.
I see things a bit differently.
The dow is currently stuck in a sideways consolidation band. The traders are running things right now. Big sell offs by institutions are on hold for a bit. Hesitant "investors" are just sitting on the sidelines, aggressive "investors" are out of cash since they can't stop themselves from buying into weakness.
Right now support and resistance is the name of the game. 8000 on the bottom, 9500 on the top. I expect to see the bottom tapped once or twice more before the next swing up. The best trade will be shorting around 9500. The final peak should be about 12 weeks from the first tap of the bottom.
Eventually this range will break down and the next down leg will be upon us. The recession hasn't hardly even started yet you see. We have most likely 4 more legs down to go. From my long term model, I am looking at worst case Dow 3000 May of 2010.
If we get a quick drop below 8000 it will be a conundrum. This could either be capitulation before the next swing up or the break down coming early. I will be betting we will head back up, this time.
Best of luck, and God bless,
I doubt the 3000 DOW ( unless a REAL depression).
Testing 7500 yes..that is VERY possible....buyers are steping in at 800 Down and 800 SP500.
CO are cutting staff...putting of capital projests...bad short term...VERY good long term.
I see no strong up here....very slow climb up from either the current OCT low or a new low of say 7000 DOW. Far to much Gov interevention for the 3000 DOW.
I see lots of Monster Inc posts now...flip side of what people said about Yahoo when it was 150.00 a share.
Bears will die...just like Bulls.
Sorry for saying this but you're the stupid one if you were bullish in 2000 and greedy for buying whatever .com in my opinion.
Smart trader just follow the way that makes money either bullish or bearish, also don't forget money isn't made it's traded from the stooopids to the smarter ones in our business ;)
Cook the books harder, through some paprika in there with some regano so we can go to 11k and get the good times rollin again lolllllllllllllllllllll
ITS THE FKIN NUMBERS STOOPIDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
Market has baked the numbers in. The markets down 45% means shorting at current levels is getting to be VERY SUPID....just like longs in 2000 that bought Yahoo at 150.00 a share.
Bears are starting to over do it. I suspect that we may see a short fry in DEC or Jan 2009. Tide is turning...
sucker rally folks......SPX made new low....NASDAQ made new low....
guess what....DOW didn't......that means one thing....
DOW will break that 7800 level next.....
another bogus ramp to clear shorts out and get bagholders for the LAST big DUMP....
Beat you to it, I already called an $80 buy point yesterday for today and posted when I bought haha. I also think it's a key short term reversal, this 80-100 trading range is good fun for active traders.
Awsome. I bought my final batch at 80 also but let go at near 88. Still have some calls with gain but I also add a small portion of Puts at closing to lock my call profit. Like u said it is fun for active traders at 80-10. If this sideline go on for another 3 mos we will all make money and go spend like during the realestate booming so the economy can get better,by then the bulls will thanks us,the Bears