I say down. 3500 up would bring the dow to it's all time highs in the worse economy ever with many head winds. I won't predict when this stupid rally will end but there is more downside then upside. If anyone thinks you make new alltime highs in this kind of economic conditions they are high on drugs.
I say down, too. When the true financial condition of the banks shows, when China starts selling a chunk of their US Treasuries, when the USA loses our AAA rating, when there's no end to big spending & printing into oblivion, when employment does not improve & consumers spend even less, etc. Plenty of big reasons to reach a new low. Not sure what quarter it will happen. But the CDS derivative, overspending & dollar-printing genies cannot be stuffed back into the bottle.