I say down, too. When the true financial condition of the banks shows, when China starts selling a chunk of their US Treasuries, when the USA loses our AAA rating, when there's no end to big spending & printing into oblivion, when employment does not improve & consumers spend even less, etc. Plenty of big reasons to reach a new low. Not sure what quarter it will happen. But the CDS derivative, overspending & dollar-printing genies cannot be stuffed back into the bottle.