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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Message Board

  • jforuus jforuus Mar 15, 2013 10:17 AM Flag

    Tom McClellan let us see if this guy is speaking out of his rear

    We are going to start compiling a list and posting names and predicitons and keep the posts going and front-center for all to hold men accountable for their opining. Tommie we are going to start with you.

    There is a Big Market Drop Coming in May Says Tom McClellan
    12:49p ET March 14, 2013 (Benzinga) Tom McClellan sat down for a talk with CNBC's Carl Quintanilla this morning about a possible market top, and the Dow's link to a few key market components.

    Here are some highlights:

    Is the market overextended?
    General Electric (NYSE: GE) is a bellwether of the market. Shares will top before the Dow does, and they move together closely. GE has not been confirming the Dow's recent highs and is showing a downtrend.

    Other factors that hint at an overextended market include growth rate divergences and the shrinking of the ECB balance sheet. It would seem that only the Fed is holding this market up.

    Copper and its Link to the Dow:
    Copper used to trade as a pure commodity, but ever since 2007 its been in lockstep with the stock market, topping just before the Dow. It has already started to fall, which is signaling a fall in the Dow coming soon.

    Copper since 2007 is a financial asset in China, used as collateral. It's still used as a component, but has another element that makes it behave more like a financial asset

    If markets are overextended, what does this mean?
    The market is being kept up by Fed, the "canaries in the coal mine" are dying.

    Predictions for Coming Market Conditions:
    An immoderate correction is coming, with one more top coming in May, and a rough summer afterwards. It will wobble first, and in May it will take a big hit.

    Thoughts on Dow Theory:
    Dow theory was originally invented with true industrials and true rails, which was a much purer version. Now its much more complicated, and thus diluted.

 
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