I can appreciate your confusion. The stock price does not reflect the "good news", therefore I'm inclined to believe that the good news is not real. Stock price always reflects the future and there must be something wrong here that the stock is at a 52-week low. I've read posts about other alternative fuels coming from a different kind of plant that put corn at a disadvantage. I don't know how real those other options are, but again, the stock price reflects that Wall Street doesn't support a great future for ADM. Something doesn't add up. I'm waiting to buy once a firm base has been established and the trend is either up or flat.
You are correct in watching a big cap stock - it is hard to outguess the big money which definitely has rolled this back. As for corn and other feedstocks - clearly things are changing everyday but ADM does have a very important infrastucture and logistics and it would be hard to run around this company unless the rendering (animal fats) really start to move on this and overtake. This whole industry could start to be valued as oil refineries were in previous years - profitable but not high growth due to the commodity business. Therefore they were moderate valuations until the bottleneck of the last few years.
Ms.Teacher is right. ADM sees itself as an energy company - with Chevron queenie at the helm. Unfortunatly, they are a middle broker between commodity prices and food processor users. Corn syrup, animal fats, soybean curd, you got it. Buy at $31, $32, $33.. Why not? That's fair value. Earnings AUG 1. Look out below. They probably hedged corn and soybean futures the wrong way and are displacing millions to cover. Could there be a leak from their 'in-house' commodity broker to wall street? How could that ever possibly happen in our lifetime?? : (laugh cue ' Here.)