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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Message Board

  • jcorritore jcorritore Dec 17, 2008 1:13 PM Flag

    Question - outperforming plan

    Purchased ADM at 18.97 with long plans for at least 1 year... with pricing fastly approaching 10.00 over, I'm very tempted to sell... thoughts?

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    • jcorritore,

      Consider where you will put the money? Where will your money get you better return right now without huge risks? I sold half my ADM at $43 just a short time back. When ADM dropped like a rock along with GM and other risky investments, I bought ADM at $16. I wanted to buy more but my investment adviser was against it.

      You might want to wait until this Community Organizer mortgage / credit market fiasco sorts itself out. Will the government start issuing 5 and 10 year plans and GUARANTEE your substandard of living or will we all have to learn to act like big boys and girls?

      If the money would pay off your mortgage. I would do it now. My home is as valuable to me now as it was a year ago. If you live in a house with a mortgage during a serious recession or depression it is not an asset. If you actually own your home it is priceless.

      • 1 Reply to adamone9999
      • Gm, big oil and financials have sold off and for good reason. Perhaps they have not sold off enough. adm has sold off as well and oversold. I dont think the sell off of adm was not based on logic but specuation. Adm last earnings was a big surprise on the upside. IF adm continues to perform with reasonable earnings and nice dividend one has to ask where else to put money to use. If the market views adm versus say big oil on a relative basis and the next earning report for adm is reasonable it could spur even further buying of adm. Maybe wait and see if adm increases its dividend as that could be a good sign. Of course its all up to you and you must do as you see fit.

    • Two points to sell depending on Dow jones ave.
      Next qtr will be a earnings suprise because of LIFO inventory So you can sell anytime after Feb 4th but before the next earnings report.
      The next time to sell is after the 4th qtr earnings but before 2010 1st quarter earnings.
      Year end will be great on a qtr to qtr basis and yr to yr basis but 1st qtr 2010 will no be so good. All of this is LIFO and comparisons to strong or weak FY 2008 qtrs.

    • You're in a great spot.

      I picked up 3,000 shares over the last 3-4 months at a cost average of $22 so I'm in a similar position as you, though you got in at a better price than I did.

      I'm letting it ride for the time being. Ideally, the stock will continue to creep up in 09' and I'll sell it next August to take advantage of the long term capital gain tax rate. But if it spikes into the mid 30's near term I'll probably cash out.

      Despite the recent run up I think the stock still has some upside.

47.55-0.55(-1.14%)Feb 26 4:01 PMEST

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