Fertilizer is not a bad idea for diversification, a lot of the agri business sector is going to do well and grow. I dont think they need any more ethanol exposure just now, although they might have some insight into what the government wants (govt policy). There are a lot of opportunities world wide that one is not aware of but adm has the ability to find such opportunities. I like the recent expansion of their chocolate business.
Fertilizer makes sense if you think that crops like corn that can easily wear out soil because of their extreme need for fertilizer will continue to be the agricultural answer. However switchgrass does not need much water or fertilizer and pesticides.
Now if ADM wanted to do something really smart they might start making jeans from sail cloth in Canada. They could also go into the health food business by selling the oil seed. Industrial Hemp is legally grown in Canada and it makes much stronger fabric than cotton.
They could also make paper from the bottom part of the plant, but since so many newspapers are going out of print and onto the Internet that market may dry up. Too bad this didn't happen before Hurst cut down all his forests for paper!