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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Message Board

  • informedstockman informedstockman Apr 7, 2009 10:31 AM Flag

    Citi - What were you thinking?

    I honestly believe Citi is wrong with their numbers and thank them for the opportunity to pick up additional shares this morning under $26. Within a year ADM will be approaching 40.

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    • birddog42 Apr 22, 2009 11:53 AM Flag

      Let's just hope Jan-Mar quarter is profitable

    • I just go back to Q3 2006.
      I have projected out 2 years in the future.
      Tried to factor in the new companies.
      Grupo Cabrera
      British Foods
      Got real excited with the PHA, PET plants.
      Now I think I will wait for a fast rise in stock price--sell
      and then convert to Jan 2011 options
      I print the conference call and make my projections from the my reading of it.
      ADM is not alone in the depressed valuation, investors seem to be totally discounting the ttm P/E and are using the projected p/e.
      If you put the LIFO back into 2008 numbers you get 2.84+.91 = $3.75. Now if you take the LIFO out of the 2009 you get 3.54-93=$2.61. David Driscoll said his estimate was without LIFO but yet the agencies take his direct number (misleading) Historically ADM has had a 14 p/e. My hope is for ethanol, the new ventures, and p/e expansion to get me to 34.5 sometime in the fall. But who knows, I have the hardest time selling anything-have to work on that.

    • berkie42,

      What type of spreadsheets do you have for ADM?

      I have a several spreadsheets that I use for ADM myself such as Cash Crush, ADM daily open/high/low, close and volume that I download from yahoo.., also profit by division since 2003.

      One of the recent acquisitions we have made after selling some ADM is CZZ. It is more speculative than an ADM.. But hey, whoever thougt the conservative banking industry would be looked on as highly speculative investments.

      Bought it has a hedge against the poor ethanol environment in the US. Not making much money lately but at least it is not BK like AVR and VSE. Ethanol is to me is ag processing. Ag processors, even powerhouses such as ADM and BG historically go thru periods of poor margins which improve at unexpected times. The ethanol spreads will eventually improve for those left standing and will be good investments..



      P.S. Am not a hunter or archery kinda guy, however, That bow you designed as well as your website are impressive

    • Yes I own Liberty Archery--started selling bows in 2005 after 6 years of spending money on the project. Took the money made from it and entered the market with 30 stocks in June of 2008. I doubled down on every losing stock and sold out when I made money. Got trapped in ADM after the 6th double down. Converted to leaps after margin calls. I am 100% ADM and down 36% now-- was only down 10% at $29.5

    • berkie42,
      BWEL is well know in the Central Valley.
      BWEL has major value in farm holdings and ag-processing in Australia and California. BWEL has major water rights in California as well as commercial developments.

      The issue with the stock is that it is on the Pink Sheets.

      If you are part owner of all the businesses noted above as well as others the stock is undervalued... But due to the
      lack of disclosure from being on the Pink sheets, one does
      not really know the assets and companies that are owned when buying the stock.

      Is this your company?


    • After tax
      The next 6 qtrs are 0.51,0.80,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.87
      All after tax,

      Interesting boswell story, how did you learn of and buy it. I quess water is the real value there.
      Maybe you should respond to
      then I can send you my ADM excel spreadsheets and we go over line by line and the reasons.

    • berkie42,

      ADM has been the cornerstone of wife's and mine as well as my mom's IRA's since 1987, so we watch it close.

      There have been times ADM during this 23 year period we been 90% ADM. Other times as low as 5 percent.

      Today we are on the low end percent amount of ADM as stock holding.

      Past year our IRA's have been bruised a bit from the market carnage. We are regrouping with an open mind.

      Current ideas are ADM, T, CHSCP(8% dividend limited upside),
      CZZ, LVLT, and bwel(a bit strange as it is a first rate company listed on pink sheets), OGE to name a few.

      What are some of the companies that you follow?



    • berkie42,

      Is your analysis of 51 cents profit before or after tax?



    • How are you invested in ADM?
      What % is it of your stock market holdings?
      What other stocks do you like.
      I like the way you think.

    • dank,
      The comparison with the 0.80 last year is going to look bad as you say, but my strategy is to sell out after the year end because the comparison to 0.59 and the yr to yr should be good. Combine that with a rising market (slowly)and I hope to see 34.50 stock price.

      Love your comments

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