I will take my own advice and not post any more on ethanol after this one, since it is over rated in relation to overall adm earnings. I did notice Murphy oil (mur) bought a corn based ethanol plant for 92 million today on the mur board. I guess the numbers make sense to them. I was wondering if the low refining profit margins on crude to gasoline are helped by the addition of ethanol, so that they get to refine less per gallon of auto fuel produced? At any rate I prefer adm focus on core business. It looks to me like fertillizer companies are going to continue to be very weak for 2009 and maybe 2010, maybe that will be the next place adm branches out, by picking up a weakened fert. company.
I can't find a single publicly traded ethanol producer I would want to invest in these days. I wish I could, since I support alternative energy. Corn is sticking stubbornly above 3 bucks and margins are weak. I follow ADM but as we have seen the last year or so, ethanol sales are hurting them.
The pure plays are worse off (PEIX is about to be delisted...)