I am no expert but pretty sure i cannot predict short term commodity prices. long term agricultural commosities are going higher. imo even the most expert commodity experts can make a wrong call, but i dont think adm gets it wrong very often.
I'm with you on that analysis. Short-term trading is for the pros.. and I mean you better have soil-moisture-sensing satellite data and staff meteorologists.. and daily info from hundreds of country elevators. Long term, macro view, as long as petroleum is dollar-denominated, and diesel tractors and trucks work the grain fields, and nat gas-based ammonia fertilzes the soil, grains are going up with oil as the dollar goes down. Some years, ADM has made more money on trading than on processing operations.