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ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd. Message Board

  • gasmanchad1 gasmanchad1 Mar 5, 2012 7:39 PM Flag

    Why I think IMUC is overbought in the short term

    I would strongly caution anyone to chase this stock much further - I bought at 1.40 and sold at 2.30. Obviously, if I could time this stock perfectly, I'd still be in it.
    However, IMUC's performance has to do with two factors:
    1. Anticipated AMEX listing
    2. Being in the perfect speculative position of the two current hot speculative biotech plays: cancer vaccines and cancer stem cell (CSC) targeted treatments

    1. Amex listing - do not confuse improved liquidity with price appreciation. Yes, it will be more efficient to trade, but being listed on amex does not necessarily mean pps appreciation. Especially after the run it has already had.

    2. Perfect crossroads - the two hottest themes in biotech now are cancer vaccines (look at gale and nlnk) and CSCs (look as VSTM, nothing in phase 1 even and a successful IPO). IMUC is a cancer vaccine targeting CSCs, that until recently was trading at a very depressed pps. No surprise it ran, though the hyperbolic pathway surprised most.

    However, it won't be long before others announce similar cancer vaccines targeting CSCs. IMUC is not even in phase 3 yet nor has a SPA. I actually think it is now fairly priced and did so in record time from being grossly undervalued. I think the risk here for profit taking on just a lack of positive news is high. Seekingalpha articles will not be enough to keep this stock up.

    My advise, don't chase it, and if you have profits, take some and rotate into other cancer vaccine stocks. If you need some ideas, check out my cancer immunotherapy index:
    Gasmanchad Cancer Immunotherapy Index(tm):
    BAVA.CO/BV3.FRA (Bavarian Nordis)
    GEN.CO (Genmab)
    TNG.PA (Transgene)

    Feel free to bash and put your life savings into IMUC at this pps.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Another red flag.Dont buy or sell in fear. Its the same post that was there months ago. After all its your money dont put it in the shorts or day traders pocket.

    • I put very little value in the message boards, do your own homework. Most here are shorting the stk or day traders. Trust knowone when it comes to your money including sa.

    • ryangros Apr 14, 2012 12:56 AM Flag

      Thanks for the list. I think you and fred both know what your talking about and not just try 2 pump or short a stock

    • Sorry you sold your imuc.I,ll follow zacks advice.

    • great work

    • IMUC has been extremely overbought for many days now,however, a stk. can stay in an overbought condition for quite some time when it's under accumulation by bigger investors. Once this equity closes over $5 it's truly going to be accumulated by institutional investors. The relatively very large vol. of late will keep this stk. in the upward direction mid to long term all things considered(news,etc.). My opinion!

    • you sound bitter about selling too soon. no gut no glory, now your a shorty basher eh? GL either way

    • Somewhat agree. But stock market always goes extream in one way or the other. I bought 30k IMUC @ 1.01~1.03 for two of my accounts. I sold 20k @2.63 for one and still hold 10k as a long term investing for the other.... Stock market always get crazy and drive people gready....The list you provided is a good source for new starters. Personally I like BPAX, NLNK, PPHM, TPIV, and especialy NWBO.OB, which is at 52 week low and looks like it's going to take off with both price and volume up today. NWBO uses the same technique as IMUC does,dendritic cell based multi‐antigen vaccine targeting cancer stem cells (CSCs). There are so many hot airs for IMUC recently.

      • 1 Reply to retiger1998
      • I like all the stocks you mentioned except BPAX. I think a lot of people don't know the real facts about bpax and just seem the approved drugs and big GVAX pipeline on its website.

        Fact is, most the approved drugs produce little to no revenue for bpax. GVAX was a failed platform when Cellsys GVAX prostate failed to show efficiacy in a phase 3 trial and then was bought by bpax for 30M+. The phase I gvax pancreas results everyone is getting excited about is ridiculous. First, phase 1 results are very unreliable - just look at libigel and gvax prostate. Secondly, they licensed away the rights for GVAX pancreas in April 2011 to Aduro Biopharm are are only entitled to a small royalty % even if it does succeed.

    • what other plays do you like?I like imuc but waiting on the stock 2 go back around low 2's.I already own ARQL which isnt in immunotherapy but has a great drug for lung cancer and many other types.I like agen,and then vstm.I for sure have plenty of time 2 buy vstm

      • 1 Reply to cranfred
      • Here the the stocks I own and why:
        All are in phase 3 except one:
        Vicl - has alcovectin 7, in phase 3 with spa. Myeloma treatment
        Transgene (tng.f) - oncolytic viral vector treatment in phase 3 with spa for Heptatocellular carcinoma. Also has a phase 3 med for HCV.
        Newlink genetics (NLNK) hyper acute pancreas - phase 3 with spa and one of my favorite picks due to being well capitalized, great phase 2 results and under the radar status
        Biovest\accentia(BVTI/ABPI) Biovaxid, phase 3 complete. Treats NHL and Mantle Cell Lymphoma. Follow-up phase 3 results and BLA filing due soon. Excellent chance of conditional approval.
        ONTY - muc 1, in phase 3 with spa for lung CA
        AGEN - qs21 adjunct, phase 3 with spa
        Cel-sci (cvm) - Multikine actually approved in Russia for ENT cancers, in phase 3 with small. Recently had a secondary so no near term dilutions.
        GALE - Neuvac, for breast CA, entering phase 3 with spa
        NWBO - discussed already, very small position due to the patent issues mentioned earlier in dispute with IMUC. In phase 3 with spa
        CLDX - has an off-the-shelf gliablastoma treatment in phase 3 with spa. This is a promising position I am adding to since near term catalysts on the horizon in q2.
        PRR.AX - CVac for ovarian cancer, in phase 3 with SPA. Currently only listed in its home country of australia, though an ADR due soon.
        TPIV.OB - this is an unusual company for me to invest in since it is only in phase 1. Like AGEN's q21 adjunct, this makes the vaccines more effective. I just like the science behind it and with. 8M market cap, its upside with any traction is tremendous. Has applications across a wide range of immunotherapy including autoimmune vaccines and treatment of infectious diseases. Definitely my highest risk pick.

        As a FYI, I only included PVCT and AVXT, for completeness. They are by far my least favorite stocks And I feel may border on being sham companies. AVXT does not even have a website.


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