MT-wondering if you are still short the 15 LEAP leap? Are you confident the deal will close?
CTB-agree completely with your post. Think the market is misreading this one a bit....only thing that would worry me would be another horrible quarter..even then think the deal would prob go through
I have never been involved in a deal to the very end (closing) with a CVR as part of the deal. The cash component here is $10.75 Hypothetically if tomorrow was the deal closing day, how would the OCC process work if one held a AUG call for the $10 strike? Would I be credited with $10.75 in cash and then granted a future dated CVR in the form of an option or some other instrument?
Anyone selling OPTR puts? Long dated 12.5s get you about 50c. If you get the CVR put to you, I figure your cost will be about $1.25 per CVR for an 5.00 payout on on a product that is already in the market. Most CVRs are #$%$, but this one is not bad as far as CVRs go.
John-Question on the OPTR puts.....Are you sure the CVR's will be part of the options deliverable?I'm not saying they aren't and the options market looks like it says they will be but i never read it anywhere.
John-the cost now is 1.75 for a chance at 5 if one werte to buy the stock.... a triple at best.....but it will take 2-3 years and isn't a definite...I've been thinking about it but have no position at this time...by sellingthe 12 1/2 put for approx 50 cents yes as you say 1.25 to make 5.....quadruple.......in 2-3 years but no layup....have you sold the puts? also what about TSRX? are you involved there?
The deal, which combines Nielsen's core TV ratings and consumer buying habits business with Arbitron's focus on the consumption of radio and out-of-home media, has been presented by the companies as a complementary combination. Both companies have in recent years attempted inroads into each other's markets without success, which is likely one focus of the FTC inquiry.
There has also been speculation that the FTC could be concerned with competition in technology for measuring media consumption through Arbitron's portable people meter that requires less action by a consumer to collect and report data for aggregating. Arbitron's PPM technology takes the industry standard a step forward by automatically collecting information regarding exposure to media through codes imbedded in programming audio and detected by a device carried by a participating subject. Nielsen has similar technology under development, as do other competitors, such as Civolution BV, a spinoff of Royal Philips Electronics NV.
Nielsen's official position on the FTC review has been that the company is working with third parties, including regulators, to ensure all customary closing conditions are satisfied as soon as possible.
The merger agreement requires Nielsen to accept divestitures or other actions, such as licensing, to resolve antitrust concerns as long as the concession does not account for more than $131 million in 2012 Ebitda.
MT / eI2016,
I came across this article and wonder what you think?
Nielsen Sets Clock Ticking on FTC Review
Nielsen Holdings NV indicated on Tuesday, July 30, that it certified compliance with the second request regarding its $1.3 billion merger with Arbitron Inc.
The Federal Trade Commission has been reviewing the acquisition by Nielsen of Arbitron since issuing a second request March 8 after the companies refiled their notification under the Hart-Scott-Rodino process.
Nielsen CEO David Calhoun said on the company's earnings call Tuesday that the FTC "has a window that they are committed to by law to get back to [Nielsen] with respect to the second request, that we now have submitted. The process has been very workmanlike and nothing has surfaced over the course of that process [that] was either surprising or different than anything we thought about going into it." The CEO added, "It's always longer than anybody would like but I think the dialogue has been healthy for everybody."
Nielsen expects the FTC to make a decision regarding the antitrust review by the end of August. The company declined to peg a specific date.
While Nielsen has apparently certified compliance with the second request and must have some indication that the FTC accepts that certification, there does not seem to be any timing agreement regarding the review. Such an agreement would typically mean the merging companies agreed to not close by a certain date to allow the agency time to complete its analysis, as opposed to waiting on a deadline for the agency to act. Certifying compliance without a timing agreement can imply a degree of contention in the review process. It does not sound like Nielsen has made any proposals to address potential competition issues that the FTC may have.
MT-Well my message came across fine as did yours so maybe we all have figured this board out.
I have never tried to access these boards on my phone, perhaps I will try.
I also am in BMC. I've been happily surprised by the swiftness of that deal. TRLG small position should have added the other day when it had 27cents still on the table. NYX-are you long/short that deal? if so would you mind saying the ratio of long NYX/short ICE shares you have.
LEAP-I was in since deal day. Am a little confused by the CVR. If one buys the 15 call say would they get 15 in cash plus the CVR? I read it is not transferable. Can you help me understand?
As for the trio of deals you aren't in I am in two of them.
IN-taking forever but the stock has really never sold off except for a little bit when a delay was anticipated/announced. And nobody has bought any puts on the thing. Not sure why this is still lingering.
ARB-I exited this a month ago. Didn't like the delay and the way the stock was acting. I actually believe this will be blocked and if I had some guts I would buy some cheap puts. Trouble is spreads are wide and I'n not sure how bad the stock would get whacked anyway.
DELL-This one I think gets done at at least 13.75. I seem to be in the minority but Michael Dell wants this. This is his life. I have to think he won't let this go easily despite what he says. Downside is real but so is upside here.
Re LEAP, I don't really know how the LEAP options will work. For the 15s, I imagine $1500 if they expire before the CVR is resolved, and $1500 + CVR value if resolved after, but that is just a guess.
Re NYX, for every 100 long, short 17 ICE. Been in it pretty much since day 1. Thought it would have closed by now, but now they are saying the fall. Sheesh. Won't be so bad if they pay another divvy, thp.
Yeah, Yahoo ruined it. Who knows why? Maybe it works better on a phone. I can't trade on my phone; I need big screens with zillions of windows going, so WDIK? Also. all my posts were eaten for a while, so that could be happening to others.
Anyway, in those deals, and a few more; BMC, NYX, and TRLG the most nagging, hoping to get across the line before the Hamptons blackout. Also been kicking LEAP around a bit. That's a fun one while waiting for Godot to come in on these other deals.
Might be more interesting to mention the ones I'm not in: IN, ARB, and DELL. Exiting DELL way back when with a nice gain looks like a good call as the cards sit now, but who knows what's gonna happen? Long could be good now; I doubt Icahn would be willing to ride it down to 8. I know I wouldn't, and I would take the small loss if it were me. But, he's the billionaire, not me, so I have to leave that one alone. Almost shorted it, could a, should a would a. Oh well.
Losses om the exit in both IN and ARB. The antitrust problem areas in each deal are both small pieces of business, so I can't understand why it is taking forever. I avoid situations I don't understand.
So, how does this post look on your phone? Figured I'd at least reply. More importantly, any thoughts on the interesting deals: IN, ARB, DELL?
I know Yahoo has it's issues with these message boards...but the interaction we have here is valuable I believe....
Established positions in FIRE,ELN this week......Top three for me LIFE, CTB, and SFD
Hope everyone is having a nice summer!