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Ultratech, Inc. Message Board

  • the_vu1ture_is_here the_vu1ture_is_here Oct 18, 2013 9:41 AM Flag

    Interesting Analyst Take on UTEK Report

     

    The firm dispelled recent investor concerns about the status of its LSA tool quals for FinFETs at the 14nm node by indicating their anneal process is qualed at all major FinFET fabs and is the process of record for up to four process steps.

    The December quarter is expected to be the trough and quarterly sequential revenue growth is expected in 2014. While significantly below investor expectations going into the call, Ultratech has forecast a 20% YoY increase in sales for next year to an estimated $192 million. This actually may prove to be conservative in lieu of the fact that Ultratech entered this year with a record backlog estimated at $150 million to $155 million. Couple this record backlog with book-to-bills greater than one in each quarter of this year and we estimate that Ultratech will exit this year with a backlog of $160 million to $170 million if the December book-to-bill is one or above.

    As such, it should be noted that the backlog will probably grow this year and is likely to be at or near record levels exiting 2013. From our 25 years experience in bringing new technologies to market, including work on a Nobel prize winning NASA mission that encountered several set backs, it is not usual to see developmental glitches push out introduction of products with new technologies, as Intel has just experienced, and that interpretation of the report as a sign of a fundamental deterioration in its business conditions could be highly misleading.

    It is one thing to miss a quarter due to technology, manufacturing, or marketing glitches, but quite another to post soft results because your customer is not ready to take delivery. The former speaks of internal business issues, which should be viewed as a source of Investor concern, while the latter does not. However, in the trading game that is played daily with tech stocks and exploited by some, the end result result is a painful one for investors in the short term but at the same time an opportunity.

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