starting to look like it is going back to the Nov 2010 range, and 2.88 is real. My plan is to ride it out, not the smartest plan. Prudence tells me to sell and buy back in a month. I am not on margin, I just hate looking at red ink. Experience tells me if I bail, I will simply move on. I think this is a winner in 18 months with bearable short term pain.
The down trend is not necessarily connected to the market, lack of news, any of the stuff rational people try to peg for the sell off. The reason for the sell off is the shorts got this one good and it will be hard to stop them. The other only logical choice is manipulation by funds to dollar cost down, also likely.
All the potential news for this company is out there, the studies, Frost's buying, the partnerships etc... it is not lack of news. In the Jefferies presentation OPKO states that the final results of the AD test is not til late this year, I am assuming that means q4. That gives the funds and shorts the whole summer to get our shares. Most likely at last November prices.
Regarding Frost: The man buys almost daily but what is his annual income? 500 million? He has a ton of income streams. His home an island paradise. One of the most brilliant minds in the world. He has given away more money to charities than I could earn in ten life times. Be it 200k dollars a month or 2 million, to Joe investor it appears a lot. In Frost world he is still banking more in a day than it would cost me to retire on.
He has been right so many times one would have to be a fool to not follow his lead. This is a man that has given away 23 million in a day, so when he invests 200k, or even 2 million is it a real indication of a companies future prospects. If he invests 2 million a month for the next 12 months that would be about equal to what he gave an art charity in a day.
The bottom line is this. The stock is going lower unless it spikes over and holds 3.33. Forget what Frost does, in Frost world he is not even investing a weeks paycheck. We all need to ask one question, does OPKO, minus Frost, warrant our enthusiasm.
Does OPKO minus Frost warrant the current price. Is a simple AD test kit worth 3.00+ a share. I need help here. To my knowledge there is no test for Alzheimer's am I right? There is still a question whether it validates, but if it does, is it a one time buy by institutions, or single use test. Am sure it is not quite like a pregnancy test kit, lol. If approved this kit goes to every single medical institution in the country, and probably globally.
What is that worth???? Waiting for answers, and will add to position again in two weeks.
If this is a single use test which I highly doubt, then I cannot even begin to guess the potential market cap for this company. A meter type of test with each medical facility needing one or two well then the market cap would be about...........?
JP Morgan puts bio-marker protein identity kits at a $20 billion revenue over 10 yrs for pancreatic, hepatic, kidney. It sees 9 billion for Alheimers. So, that's $29 billion. The revenue number assumes $100/test per disease. Insurance companies will want these tests, and the thing is the FDA is not the final arbiter. No phase 3 nonsense, in other words.
JP Morgan's numbers doesn't mean they are right. These numbers are from the Jeffries conference that an institutional pm acquaintance of mine attended.
I'd love to know if someone else could get those numbers as a second piece of evidence for the claim of these high revenues.