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Opko Health, Inc. Message Board

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Nov 18, 2011 2:06 PM Flag

    support has been 5.03/latest institutional numbers way up

    Where the next support level is a trickier question. This stock has tested 5.03 and 5.06 twice each in the past 6 weeks, so currently one would have to think support is 5.00, since as of this writing 5.01 has held up.

    The Lazard presentation confirmed that Opko is not releasing the AD results for a few extra months. Which gives us time to accumulate more. This may also be the reason for the current weakness, that and the general market. Opko had stated the results would be out before year end previously, and that is no longer the case. That release would have been a catapult to the 6-8 range. It is in the works, but still has a blanket over it.

    There has been major institutional accumulation going on, and they will always buy cheaper, but this in no way means they will support a price say 5.00. I am guessing at this point, but below 5 support could be as high as 4.85, or as low as 4.50. Until we see a number below 5.00 there is now way to glance a chart over and know. The run up was slow steady and daily with little basing.



    OPK Institutional Activity Summary

    Stock Trading Score: 3.09 Owners: 182 No Change: 37 (20.32 %)
    Buying: 81 (44.50 %) Brand New: 31 (17.03 %) Added More: 50 (27.47 %)
    Selling: 64 (35.16 %) Sold Some: 34 (18.68 %) Sold All: 30 (16.48 %)

    Previous Shares Held By Institutions 50,863,686 Net Shares Changed (Pct): 10,938,100 (21.50%)
    Current Shares Held By Institutions 61,801,786

    Total shares held on 3/31 was 40,374,416, so the 60 million now is a net 50% share increase. From a 14% institutional ownership to 28%. Frost owns a ton, and this board owns the rest, well except for the ones we lent out to the shorts.

    So funds had a net 21.50% gain in their positions since 6/30, and since we went to nyse. Which may or may not be incidental.

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    • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Nov 22, 2011 8:58 PM Flag

      Ice when you made the following statement, my wacky brain thought of a Star Trek Dialogue which also follows.

      So, "guessing" might be what most do, but analyzing is a better choice.

      Spock: I've had to program some of the variables from memory.
      James T. Kirk: What are some of the variables?
      Spock: Availability of fuel components, mass of a vessel through a time continuum, and probable location of humpback whales, in this case, the Pacific Basin.
      Leonard McCoy: "Angels and ministers of grace, defend us."
      Spock: Hamlet, act I, scene IV.
      James T. Kirk: No doubt about your memory, Spock.
      Spock: The captain seems to be making light of this?
      Leonard McCoy: No Spock, he is saying he is more confident in your guesses than other peoples facts.
      Spock: Then I should endeavour to make the best guess possible.

    • so currently one would have to think support is 5.00, since as of this writing 5.01 has held up.

      I think a few bricks around the foundation came loose.

    • Ice:
      Technical analysis, to me, is a confirmatory indicator. It will usually confirm an improving fundamental outlook. Sounds like OPK :)

      The heyday of TA was in the 70s and early 80s with Joe Granville, Stan Weinstein and Robert Prechter. They were all pretty much eventually discredited. I guess you could include Elaine Garzarelli in that group. Possibly they were discredited because they were too public and flamboyant with the certainty of their predictions, so they didn't have too much margin for error.

      The funniest story about a technical analyst that I saw personally was we had a technical analyst who left on a Friday with a totally bullish outlook and came in Monday morning to our meeting saying just about sell everything.
      The lady sitting next to me, who was very sharp, said in a loud whisper:
      "He must have seen a dead bird on his way to work."

      Personally, I put a high priority on clean balance sheets, insider buying, oversold situations, value of assets in the ground for energy stocks, and seasonality (December is a good month for finding bargains). Technical breakouts are good for timing buys.

    • <<This stock has tested 5.03 and 5.06 twice each in the past 6 weeks, so currently one would have to think support is 5.00, since as of this writing 5.01 has held up.>>

      There has been major institutional accumulation going on, and they will always buy cheaper, but this in no way means they will support a price say 5.00. I am guessing at this point, but below 5 support could be as high as 4.85, or as low as 4.50. Until we see a number below 5.00 there is now way to glance a chart over and know.>>

      The 50SMA may also come into play. During this consolidation it has continued to rise narrowing the gap between the stk price and that moving ave. It will be interesting to see if it has any impact as it gets closer to the price.

      One other interesting point. Drawing a trendline from the Jul 15 HOD to the Oct 18 HOD and extending it shows the Nov 14 HOD stopped just short of touching it as it moved above the UBB. It appears somebody is watching the chart.

      • 1 Reply to highskier_2000
      • Mmmm. Notice anything in there about gaps?

        Just kidding.

        Oh, how about pivot points (plural) that are "probably around" yadada yada. Just kiddding. Pretty hard to determine a pivot point if you have to know yesterday's high,low,and close...add them together and divide by 3. OOOOO...mucho mysteriouso. Must be around "2.09." Yupper, close call poseur (not you High). Only .12 points below what it was.

        If this sham man is not crazy, at least he is neurotic. Or daily overdosing on something.

        Seems like somebody has read some web sites and skipped the details. And you probably know exactly who I mean.

        Prolific poster ain't he? Kinda runs counterintuitive to the "still waters run deep" thing.

        This TA thing is like painting. You got your famous painters, who are painters. And you have your paint-by-number painters, who, by some measure, are also painters. And by being painters, the latter, lesser variety can claim some commonality with the famous. But "can" and "should" are different things.

        Like some people can claim some expertise in TA, but.......should they? Well, no. Not if they don't know what a gap is. And certainly not if they have to guess where the pivot point (SINGULAR) is.

        What's really alarming is that nobody has called this faker out. I can only surmise that means he is talking over their heads.

        Google (and books) can be your friend (but only if you use it/them). FWIW

    • I think we've seen the low for the moment, that's why I picked up some more shares at $5.04. This stock moves quickly on any material news. This is a great opportunity for 'big institutions' to accumulate some more shares, before they reaffirm or put out new buy recommendations.

      • 1 Reply to sendit2andyc
      • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Nov 18, 2011 3:01 PM Flag

        4 largest holders.

        Aletheia Research Inc Institution12,431,177 Added More

        Vanguard Group Inc Institution 6,488,856 Added More

        Oracle Investment Management Institution 5,366,284 Sold Some (47,500)

        Vanguard 500 Index Fund S&P 500 Index 3,624,964New Holding


        As you can see, Vanguard and Vanguard 500 index own about 10 mill, with the 500 index taking a new 3 plus million share position. I went and read their prospectus and apparently they can own stocks that are not in the S@P 500 in the fund. They must be real bullish on Opko then to do that !!!!!!!!!!

        As far as the upgrades go I would not get too excited about them, the latest one was owed, they did the secondary offering, and the first was from LTS.

        My thinking is this though. These funds managers have all had a cup of tea with Dr. Frost in the past, and have owned Key pharma, and Ivax. They made a ton of money then, and are applauding an encore. It is a vote of confidence. They use money as a ballot.

        This stocks gets nowhere near it's full potential for at minimum 2 years, more likely 5, so unless you buy it sock it and forget it, it is not worth the hold.

        You don't go from a ball bouncing over the fence is a home run, to a ground rule double over night. This company has game changing technology, it will take time.

 
OPK
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