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Opko Health, Inc. Message Board

  • burnaka May 29, 2013 11:42 PM Flag

    Frost quoted here speaking on 4k, and possible revenue.

    So a patient comes to have their finger pricked by the nurse and by the time they sit down to see the doctor, the doctor can have the results in front of them. The first test that they’re developing is the PSA. As you know, the PSA has some controversy about it, but what we’ve done is analyze its three new markers, which when used in conjunction with conditional PSA, gives you much more precise data, and which can then avoid 60 percent of the biopsies that are now performed. That’s the big controversy, which is that too many biopsies get done. So we have not only a great test, but we think we have a solution to the present controversy. Now, from an economic point of view, it could be very interesting. There are 30 million PSAs done a year in the United States, and the average reimbursement is $30, so it’s presently a high dollar market. But the reimbursement’s paid per test. So with our four tests you’d expect it to be four times as much, a $3.6 billion market. But if we’re lucky enough to get an increase reimbursement because we’re going to provide information that’s novel and important, maybe we can even get more. We also have a lot of other things going on, new drugs that we’ve developed that are interesting.

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    • flushing_fraudulent_shorts flushing_fraudulent_shorts Jun 19, 2013 6:18 PM Flag

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    • flushing_fraudulent_shorts flushing_fraudulent_shorts Jun 19, 2013 6:18 PM Flag

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    • Jefferies is impressive.What do ya think?Kinda sideways till news? I'm hedged bigtime so I'll ride the fluctionations out but will add if I see a pullback for no reason.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • burnaka May 30, 2013 9:50 AM Flag

      Correct PBjunta !!! You point out a problem with the education system as well. OPKO has NEVER EVER given a date, they gave a POTENTIAL time frame. Obvious to me is a likely delay. Why??? They were still hiring for the launch as recent as this month. 6-7 months ago they said likely launch by June, so if they are off by a month or two I see that as meaningless. Just like phase three projections for first half of 2014, oops, might not be completed until 2nd half. When it takes 5-6 years to get one project to market being off by two to six weeks is not an issue.

      These biotechs do not update like we said news by the first of January, the news will now be first of March, they say nothing.

    • You are right it could be a game changer! But the market lives in the present and the delay has damaged credibility. First it was April and then sometime this summer...... Which technically runs until September 30.

      They say the market acts on what it sees six months in the future but it does not see OPk ........?

    • burnaka May 30, 2013 12:22 AM Flag

      No wonder Frost BUYS daily. IF his estimates on revenue are remotely close, it is a game changer. He gives a big range based on charging as low #$%$ 30.00 to as high #$%$120.00 per test. The revenue could be as low as 900 million, or as high as 3.6 billion depending on price, and number of tests done. The cards cost $1.00 to make, but figuring only a 30% margin eps could be as low as 270 million or as high as 1.2 billion. EPS as low as .80 annual or as high #$%$3.57. This of course assumes 4k supplants the standard PSA test, which I believe it will ( IN TIME ). So Frost keeps buying, hmm, at .80- 3.57 stock price could be from 15-40 based on a 15 or so pe range. It might take a year or so, but if that OLD FROSTY is right, WELL THEN. Must buy more before launch, or an upgrade.

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