There will be about 40 million shares issued to non Frost and friends. 23 million of the shares will go to insiders. There are roughly 7 million in the hands of funds who will likely hold, leaving a net 33 million of the 63m in the float. The arbitrage play is to short opk, go long pbth until the prices merge. Interesting is the opk short interest only moved up 2.2 m, but had also moved up that amount from Jan-April, SOO was heading up anyway. Basically not a ton of interest in the arbitrage play so to speak. I think a great percent of the pbth volume in recent weeks has been from opko longs, but no way to know for sure. So the real question is this. If you own pbth as an arbitrage do you sell when the prices converge, or the day of the deal when most expect an opk dump. From appearances it looks like with only a 2 million addition to the short side opk might get a small down tick. I for one think selling will be minimal with Frost standing there buying every share if that does happen. There is a good chance the stock spikes up, this is the day 30 million shorts have been drooling over, an upgrade or two based on the combined assets and opko could easily spike .70-1.30 or in that range.
So at best the PICTURE is cloudy, I think most pbth do not wait for THE DAY, TOO dangerous given what normally happens, and the light trading in opk, they will not chance selling pbth at a .50-1.00 loss.