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Maxcom Telecomunicaciones SAB d Message Board

  • yahoo yahoo May 10, 2005 10:10 PM Flag

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    • It is very interesting, that despite the fact that the stock price nearly doubled from 3/15 to 4/15 and then again nearly doubled from 4/15 to 5/15 we have seen very little short covering (roughly 500k). Now if you look at the history over the last year, you pretty much can see that the last two months are really the first months where the shorts have seen back to back losses. I think it is fairly clear that they will not start to cover until they start to feel some pain and that should start as the stock establishes itself above the exponential 200 dma. Further, as the stock price finally establishes itself above $5, we will see new money flowing in from value funds.

      Interestingly, with roughly 50% of the float short, it is entirely possible that currently the entire float is held in strong hands. So any capitulation by the shorts would result in a massive move up in stock price as long as the "longs" don't bail. As value funds start to accumulate some shares in Metris, we could be in for quite a summer party. This possibly inevitable short squeeze of all short squeezes is somewhat reflected in the rapid move from $3-4 and $4-5 we have seen lately which occurred on relatively small overall volume.

      As I have said before, the new longs that are getting in now are not likely to be interested in selling until it gets to at least $6-8, so the clock seems to be ticking on the shorts as far as I can tell.

    • It should be absolutely clear to anybody by now that the short interest is a sure sign of institutional hedging... It may be ABS, may be convertibles -- anything but a simple gamble that MXT is going to liquidate.

      A true short gamble behaves differently over a span of a year and a half.

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