Yeah, I was watching HLSH very closely and saw that article when it was posted on the HRC board. I was very happy with the article and even added a little bit to my holdings on Thursday and Friday.
The ONLY thing that scares me with HLSH is the fact that they are now investigating the actual facility operations - it could be trouble if they find the fraud went all the way down to operations. But since the forensic review was "largely" complete when they had the meeting last month, management would not have been so confident if the fraud was this widespread.
Yes, I also give the DOJ about a 1% chance of bringing the company down. And I'm fairly certain the fine will end up being much less than the tax refunds they will get.
good post. i seriously doubt the operations would have any fraud. it's just not possible IMO. you are talking of thousands of facilities...even if there is fraud on 10 facilities it doesnt reflect much on healthsouth.
anyway, i will continue hold this thru the crushing of atleast some of the rocks. i think
1) bankruptcy risks have 99% gone away with marsal's friday statement and
2) we know the earnings estimate.
3) we know the fraud and the extent of the fraud largely. medicare fraud is almost 0%.
the SEC complaint and the various pieces of the DOJ investigation that is public ...we can make a reasonable conclusion the company wont be charged and it would be a monetary settlement. scrushy and his cronies will be charged.
4. we have seen the committment by the new management to get back the company in financial credibility and get the value back in its stakeholders. one should totally be convinced at this point that the restructing is working great and will work to its fruition.
considering the 4 factors this is a screaming buy at this price.