LUK goes ex-div 12/13 on the $.25 annual dividend. In theory, LUK will drop .25 to adjust for the div. So JEF should drop .20 in tandem with LUK. But JEF has accelerated its div of .075 into Dec., so that should support JEF while LUK drops. So JEF should only drop about .13 on LUK's xd. Any differing thoughts on the effect of LUK's xd date?
Yes, there may be a ex-div effect to $JEF, but given $LUK div is only ~1% div, it will be small effect, somewhat off set by the accelerated div.
What it driving $JEF is the bidding war on $KCG, which $JEF will be funding. They win on the price and they win on the financing. And the more $JEF makes, the more $LUK NOLs which can be applied and accelerated. The leverage in this deal is impressive and now the techncials are backing a move higher, especially if $LUK closes above $23.90, as even with a 1% ex-div efect, we should close tomorrow above the MA(200)d, with a golden cross in sight soon.
A lot of stocks go UP on the ex-dividend date because a lot of money managers would rather buy the stock cheaper and not collect a dividend where you pay taxes in 2012. I'm long both stocks and they both go ex-d this month, but I'll be holding on. I won't sell my JEF/LUK until around the $30 area (LUK).