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  • peristentone peristentone May 31, 2011 4:55 PM Flag

    Meaning of Today's Price Collapse

    You can't easily value Yellow on fundamentals. They have a declining cash cow business. The dividend probably cannot be sustained more than 18 months. Until they have a new growth business emerge you cannot put a growth premium on them. Until their declining business stabilizes, you cannot really evaluate them on historical cash flow metrics.

    I think they should do a full on assault on Groupon's market. Yellow has the necessary sales staff to make that business scale rapidly. What's more, they can make unique selling appeals to potential customers like "Buy three promotions with us and we will give you free yellow page advertising." Groupon cannot compete with that.

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    • Declining cash cow? Where did you get that fact?

      Year from 2005 - 2010

      461, 541, 622, 648, 705, 580

      Sure declining..this is like

      if it goes..7, 5, 3, 1, 0, -2, -5..such a linear pattern (prediction) WOW! or the other way
      1 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13,...and infinity

      Can't evaluate them on historical data..sure..what do you evaluate a business with then? Intuition? or Crystal Ball?

      "Invest" has the root word "vest" which mean "taking interest/part on a past basis"

      "Speculate" means looking forward.

      Without history..what's an investor's basis? pure guess?