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YELLOW MEDIA INC. Message Board

  • leoislion75 leoislion75 Jul 11, 2011 6:25 PM Flag

    Bottom won't hold -> Bond side still un-stablized

    I am sure it's going to re-test the intraday low and 90% chance break it into the high 1's.


    The bond side is not holding up & well according to my source. (It's too close to the intra-day low)


    --->Definitely for investor to add more position.


    --->Definitely for speculator to make intelligent gamble =))



    $1's coming. Grab the opportunity :PPP

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    • I am now looking at one year day charts for the 2014 and 2015 bond maturities for Yellow Media. Why do you say the bond side is not holding up well?

      Yes, there was a collapse in bond pricing in May, corresponding to the collapse in equity pricing. But this bond collapse went from 107% of par value to 94%. And there was no credit downgrade. Frankly, Yellow should never have traded its bonds so far above par value. 94% looks like a correct price to me, and I don't see any cause for concern in the trading behavior of the bonds.

      The case that would be a cause for concern would be if the 2014 and 2015 bonds started to trade below 85%, and if they went below 75% I would start to worry that the market is pricing in very large probabilities of default. 94% is nothing to worry about at all.

      If these bonds recovered to par, it would be a great pair trade to go long equity and go short the bonds. If Trader deal closes, equity doubles in value. If Trader deal does not close, equity loses 1/2 of value but your short makes that back and protects your downside.

      Unfortunately, US investors apparently cannot buy these bonds, and shorting them is probably tougher still.

    • Leo the Liar

      OR
      Leo the b u l l ___s h tter


      Apparently Leo has been holding the stock long with positions higher up, then telling everyone to buy in at lower prices ... but Leo seems to say things which contradict his other comments on this web-site

      • 1 Reply to abcde_98
      • abcde,

        If I am contradicting, then THE WHOLE BOARD don't have a BRAIN lol.

        You are saying --> I SHOULD buy AT RIGHT BOTTOM!

        1)I've been saying accumulating slowly at lower prices SINCE DAY 1 (<---there are posts back in May)


        2)I am AN INVESTOR --> I do NOT buy in ONE price



        3)I leave my largest position till THE END



        Oh yes, I average DOWN and unfortunately NOT UP.


        abcde,

        I dont know about you...but like I said you are like a "wind"..

        blowing south one day and north another.





        I will reveal my position so you ARE HAPPY: In order:

        a) tiny bit in 2009 Feb/March
        b) ~$3.8 about 1-2%
        c) ~2.2 about 1-2%


        Oh yea...still have d) coming up

    • Ah, I just realized you don't have a bond chart yourself. You are getting the information second hand. Can you ask your source for a CUSIP or ISIN identifier?

    • Could you post the CUSIP or ISIN you are tracking?

      I have asked you this question about three times now, and you just keep talking to yourself. :) I would like to pull up a chart of the bond you are looking at.

      I don't disagree that stock could see $1.75 before it sees $3