Risky. At JPMorgan, they indicated that their cogs could drop to $15 per pod when their new/soon to open plant in china hit significant volumes (far beyond their current demand). Given their ASP of about $28 per pod, that looks like gross margin of <50% for their bread and butter product. In med devices, that sort of margin is a non-starter.
Yes, I think its a good buy up to about $25 per share, currently. PODD is a highly speculative play. Several on this board have first hand knowledge of the product, especially its competitive advantages over other insulin pumps. Whether the company can sustain its current advantage long enough to attract users, get converts from other pump manufacturers and grow top and bottom line, enough to warrant its valuation is another matter.
I dont typically invest for the purpose of a company being an acquisition target, but I believe that one of the market incumbents or a glucose testing player will find Insulet to be an attractive acquisition candidate.
However for me, this is a long term play and am willing to see how this plays out over 5-10 years.