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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

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  • leofabius leofabius Mar 26, 2006 8:22 PM Flag

    lu will open above 4.00 tomorrow!

    Why impossible?

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    • Well, with what we know, it seems like there will be no premium given to LU shareholders...and that would seems to be only way LU could jump 32% in one day...

      Even an announcement of a merger agreement...would likely only result in an additional 9-13% (this is typical in a buyout where the stock trades at that discount prior to Gov approval)...since there is not premium, and the market determines the price of LU based upon the percieved value of the merger...I would assume that same 9-13% discount applies....pending the actual annoucement of the agreement to the case of LU, you might tack on another few percentage points since there is likely still a chunk of shorts out there. But with all of the above, we are still talking only 3.40 to 3.50 at the most...

      ...which is way short of 4....

      this of course assumes that ERICY, CSCO, etc., does not make a counterbid....if that happened, we would see 4...I think...but i am far short of supremely confident that another bid will be made...


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