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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

  • mariocuturic mariocuturic Sep 5, 2012 9:21 AM Flag

    Just listened to Cramer on CNBC a few minutes ago......

    The panel was discussing the future of Nokia and that if the new Lumia phone line do not catch on, CEO Elop is GONE and most likely, the company will go into a "death spiral" to BK(this is what Cramer believes will happen). He then equated ALU to Nokia. He sees BK for ALU as well. Thoughts?

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    • I did not see Cramer this morning, but I saw him a couple of months ago when he compared ALU to gambling in Vegas. He did not by any stretch of the imagination endorse buying the stock. However, if he is now using the "BK" word with ALU, that is something new, and in effect, a downgrade from very speculative to watch out.

    • You guys have not heard, Nokia is going to get bought out by Nike. Nike is going to get smart and come out with a shoe phone.

    • wait, wait...didn't someone recently say that cramer endorsed ALU as a speculative stock?

      from what I've read, even if nothing changes, ALU is good cash-wise for a couple more years. meanwhile, the global economy should improve, carriers worldwide will be all frothy over upgrading their technology, and bell labs will continue cranking out new products. apple and google and other companies that move a lot of data were mentioned in one article as possible customers for the routers. it wouldn't even surprise me if google wanted a division or two of bell labs. 4G hasn't even reached critical mass, and bell labs is working on 5G.

      I think if there's an area that could use some cutback, it would be R&D. their award-winning research covers the spectrum, but seriously: it's all well and good to confirm the Cosmic Microwave Background and Quantum Fluctuation, but can you monetize it?

    • my biggest fear of owning my relatively small position (10k shares)is the French government impeding the company's ability to cut the costs where they are needed....Without that fear, I would add aggressively....Much like GM and it now being Obama Motors..I hesitate to even buying a car/truck from them while OBAMA is in charge and let alone their stock!....Go Romney/Ryan....

    • what if google bought alcatel-lucent?

      would ALU go BK then?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • this is #$%$

      Sentiment: Hold

    • nok just rolled out a really nice phone. -lumia-920-dual-core-1-5ghz-snapdragon- 8 megapix camera..1080p HD..4.5 inch 8.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • To me, BK is out of mind, due to the position French government has in ALU. But, I don't see a fine future. My last hope it will be to oust Ben and to hire someone with balls to cut costs deeply and to put new products selling. Sales people of ALU makes their revenues without selling something.

      • 1 Reply to joeantfig
      • Joen,
        How can BK be off the table? IF ALU runs out of cash(very likely with the cash burn currently going AND the economic storm clouds gathering around the globe), then they are BK. The French government will not inject billions of dollars to keep ALU afloat......Not at a time when French sovereign debt is growing exponentially and state revenues are declining. What you are describing is a Ch. 11 bk(reorganization of debt) which is possible but I feel complete liquidation would be the route the French govt would go.

    • they have six billion in cash or cash equivalents and debt repayments are manageable for years under most macroeconomic circumstances. Telecom and govt entities have reduced CAPEX to lowest levels in a generation and demand for upgrades and investment is building. Just a matter of patience before demand revs up and tier 1 suppliers are working overtime. The sentiment on ALU will change and six dollars w/i three years is my prediction.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to thethirdchimp
      • sorry, my absolute agreement was meant for "thethirdchimp" above. Yes, alu could very well get back to $6. It will be worth that. But under my scenario, the GM plan, it will be the unions and the federal governments who will collect that $15 Billion value from victimized private investors.

      • absolutely agree. However, the danger is that the USA and French governments do a GM quick bankruptcy on the company: extinguish shareholder value(steal from investors), nationalize the company, use alu cash to pay off debt, maybe 66%payoff to debt-holders leaving them with a 33% haircut, use the rest of cash to recapitalize the company then with no debt, give half the company to the unions and their programs, then finally repackage the assets of the company and future value as you describe and sell it back to investors(again stealing from investors). This would then be a great socialist government cash cow. What a country! Just like how now the SEC, FTC, and DOJ operate as great cash cow machines manipulating private enterprise and extracting income from them by Federal investigations and lawsuits. And the people say that private enterprise doesn't pay anything to the Federal government? There you have American socialism in a nutshell.