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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Sep 18, 2012 9:53 AM Flag


    Buying more @ 1.24 today.

    LTE...the cloud...core routers....45 million iphones expected to be sold in dec. quarter.. management of these networks...

    6 billion in cash....

    I just can't see this price at all staying here.

    ALU # 1 holding.

    Wish me luck :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • bwilkison Nov 16, 2012 10:46 AM Flag


    • !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    • no reply button on your post so i'll use the original post to reply.

      I disagree with your negativity on the earnings front. Look at earlier this year when you (and I) first bought. The stock ran up to about 2.70 primarily on Q3 and Q4's turnaround results.
      I think solely because of cost cutting by Q 3 and 4 next year..we'll see BETTER results than that even and so I think my 3.00 estimate is well supported. And maybe..even 4.00 if we're talking about Q1 2014 as well. And remember..50 cents eps and 3.00 share price would be a p/e ratio of only 6 which would be well under the market.

      And so..for me..everything comes back again to just 3 things really. The cost cuts. The time factor...and business essentially remaining the same.

      I think we're looking at a 3 to 4/share stock by Q4 2013 ~ Q1 2014 for those willing to buy and hold from these levels. AND..i think it's pretty secure that will be the case as well. Or, as secure as the stock market affords anything. big position on this now.

      And again..i have to take exception with another point you Raise with that being Ben and his stance on this. The company is cutting 1.6 BILLION dollars in expenses. They ARE taking action.
      And..a lot of it. And you continually give them little to no credit for it. I understand the disapointment with it not working out to your (or my) expectations so far and perhaps you never invisioned this being a longer term proposition. I felt it would be though even when i first bought because their technology had yet to even be rolled out. this was a multi year investment. Europe worked out to be a negative surprise and something else the company has to now deal with. And, i think they are dealing with it in an effective manner. Because of this decisions had to be made in terms of investing in this. I've chosen to stick it out and to increase my position to allow for better averaging.
      And that's based on liking what i'm seeing as a response to this whole issue.

      You or others might not want to do that and you shouldn't if it means being in too much of this and not being diversified. I'm breaking the rules some by what i'm doing but i'm comfortable with it.
      And, other than that..i expect to be here a year from now and seeing much improved results.

      In closing i'll go back to my primary point. 50 cents eps = 3.00 IMO. And they'll do that by the end of next year. That is not all i expect however. I'm in this for the great technology that rivals the best that's out there now IMO. And that's where the real excitement is and what's worth really sticking this out IMO.

      GL to you and all.


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to tradestoxx11
      • I don't disagree that all you say is possible, but along with my having less certainty that sales will not continue to decline, your scenario assumes that Ben's claim that he will cut $1.6 billion in expenses is accurate. Is Ben always accurate? This is Ben of the "normal" company, huge patent revenues, and calendarization. I think making projections based on Ben's word is highly risky.

        Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe after the Q2 announcement you were expecting a Q3 profit of $.06, based primarily on the reduction in employees. Well, over 2/3rds of the way into the quarter Ben tells us not only have they not made any cuts, nor even identified who to cut, they haven't even decided in which countries to make cuts. He has already admitted that the company is overstaffed, it is losing hundreds of millions of dollars, burning cash even faster, and he can't even decide in which countries to make desperately needed cuts? Like ALU can afford to continue spending indefinitely on unnecessary employees? You would think with these losses there would be some sense of urgency, but with Ben it's like now that he has made the decision to cut (a couple of years late) he doesn't have to actually do it.

        So why do I still own this company? Because I believe the assets are worth $3-$6. Probably more, but I'm willing to take a steep discount to get a deal done. I am waiting for the Board, a large shareholder, a potential buyer, or the weight of continuing embarrassing comments by analysts to finally break Ben's grip on these assets so we can get OUR money.

      • pps at ~$1.00 usually represent the expectation that the company is approaching the risk BK. Not necessary in the process of or close to declaring BK. Experiences indicate that once a high probability of BK is pending then pps collapse to close to zero. I don't believe ALU is in such a situation in near term. Once the market is convinced that BK is not at risk then it is conceivable pps might go to ~$2.6 on 2/24/12 or higher. My problems is I can not rule out BK situation even though I believe the probability is very low. The safety net of a possible BK environment is a buy out.

    • Unbias88...

      Based on what i know today I won't be buying anymore nor would i sell any even if the price went back down to 1.00. It's part of the risk factors i've factored in and i'll just hold through any events like that. You'll also recall that i already bought on the last dip to 1.00 I sold them when i reduced my position somewhat but have since bought them back and more.

      At this point i don't think we'll see that 1.00 level again and so any moves down from here would just be penny type moves over time. But..if we do...i think it will simply be an over reaction and will correct in time and i'll just hold through that event. I think a greater risk right now is stock stagnation....becoming simply range bound for a couple of quarters. That's ok though because we'll be working through what i think willl be the worst of the period of restructuring. I want to be in this anyway because a buyout is possible and so i'd rather take the chance of stagnation versus being out for that event. i don't KNOW that we'll be bought out and its certainly not my main reason for this position..but it's possible given the very low valuation we're seeing. Also possible is a quick move back to 1.50 to 1.70 because frankly i think this price is VERY oversold even despite the losses they're seeing. Big name company with 6 billion in cash...planning on cutting 1.6 billion the next at 1.22.

      This stock is ...CHEAP.

      And so.,..the market could soon wake up to that fact and correct what we're seeing.

      In any play is to basically hold firm now and see how this all works out.
      My REAL interest is frankly in seeing this company grow again and be all i think it can be.
      LTE and the cloud and core routers and me this is exciting stuff. And a real change is coming in the technology world that ALU will be a big part of.

      GL to us both. :)


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Do you still believe in Alu's management?
      After all their lies and excuses?
      Too funny!

      Alu to ZERO!


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • If ALU bought back shares what are the rules before they could sell them again @ a higher price? Seems like that would be the thing to do with some of the cash on hand.

    • Trade wait until it drop to $1/s by Friday it is coming and then go long.

    • I broke all the rules, 40% of my portfolio now contains ALU. I would be rich if this thing goes to $4 a share. Current management is the big hurdle here, but let's see what happens. This could go either direction.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 3 Replies to stocklooser2009
      • "This could go either direction."

        Aside for a few cents, I'm uncertain how much lower this stock could go given other variables (assets, patents, cash in hand, etc.). I mean, while it has stagnated, I am under the thinking that the price is so low, there is only one way to go: up. Right?

      • i'm at about 25% with this mornings buys. my top holds are usually 10 ~ 15% and regular holds 5%. So..i'm definitely bullish on this stock. While the shorter term may be shaky i think that 1.6 billion in cuts by the end of next year will definitely turn this around and we're probably looking at 3 to even 4/share by the end of next year IMO.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • i'm at about 25% with this mornings buys. my top holds are usually 10 ~ 15% and regular holds 5%. So..i'm definitely bullish on this stock. While the shorter term may be shaky i think that 1.6 billion in cuts by the end of next year will definitely turn this around and we're probably looking at 3 to even 4/share by the end of next year IMO.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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