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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

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  • jessten1 jessten1 Oct 16, 2012 2:19 PM Flag

    The Choice ALU Has

    Don't forget that ALU has a core router that's taking market share from Cisco! Plus look at all the awards that ALU received just recently! Remember, a few years back Ford stock went to a dollar per share and look where they are now!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Agreed that the router business is the one gem this company has - profitable, growing, taking market share. However, its value is not being realized by shareholders because it is tied up in a company that is losing money and burning cash. It just feeds someone else's losses. So, if no one wants to pay its worth as part of a purchase of the complete company, it should be spun off, as recommended by Sanford Bernstein, where it will most likely trade at a price significantly higher than the price of ALU's stock today.

      As for the Ford comparison, this is always possible. Things could fall neatly in line for ALU. However, there is also the GM scenario, where shareholders get nothing. So, while ALU may survive and one day thrive by itself, the risk of it falling is far too great to continue as it is. That is why a sale to a company with financial strength such that we know it will survive makes sense. An offer, in whole or in parts, of $3 I believe is conservative. So look at Nokia. May it survive and again one day prosper? It might. Then again, it might not. So if Nokia could be sold for 3x its current price or $8.40 would that be the right move for management to make on behalf of its shareholders? Of course it would be.

 
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