Barron's Cover | SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2012
By TIERNAN RAY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
As the PC era wanes, Dell and HP will fade from view. Tablets, smartphones, and big data will drive Apple, Google, and EMC.
I GUESS WE ARE INCLUDED TO THE PARTY BECAUSE THEY CANT DO IT WITH OUT US
Honestly..i've never seen anything like what is going on. Mobile everything is growing so fast from samsung to apple to smartphones and tablets. And absolutely no one is paying attention to the network stocks like ALU.
What on earth do they think products will do without the network except be useless pieces of hardware?
I'm telling you...i've been shocked at what i'm seeing in some of my carrier tests. Major metro areas at one half dial up speeds at prime time usage hours. Here's the latest real life example of one area we tested.
6:30am speeds 2280k latency (ping time) 172ms (very decent for a 3 g network)
That SAME network around 6pm was seeing 22k speeds and 1100ms + ping times
Moving out of the metro area around 7pm saw speeds resuming at the 1100k + level and ping times coming back to around 460ms
For anyone not completely aware of what this means 22k is half the speeds your old AOL dial up modem used to get in the 1990's.
I further conducted a test of the carriers tech support..calling them to complain/report the dialup type speeds. They completely denied any problems in that area and went through the drill of "its your phone" "reboot".."reformat"...yada yada.
Nice try except it was tested on a second device..same carrier..same place as well.
With the same result.
Guess what? Oversold network crumbling under the data demands.
And that's just with the usage now. Wait until everyone has a smartphone. A 4 inch plus device they're using 4 times as much. Wait until 5 x's the tablets are trying to access these networks...
Wait until your dashboard contains a lcd screen.
The results above were the worst i saw and even in the worst cases it would load a simple webpage of mostly text. Just like a dial up connection would. Forget youtube or any video related things though. Wouldn't even start running and if it did..all it did was buffer nonstop.
This was also not all areas. Other parts of the state saw 1100k during primetime. But still that's 1/3rd what a 3g network should generally provide.
This is a classic oversold condition. Not enough bandwidth...too many devices competing for it.
That's why you have the caps you do and why the caps are getting more "creative". Like Verizon and AT+T "shared " family plans. It' lets them present caps in a different way. But the fact is...you can burn through them like wildfire once you move into video type programs..
I think there is no doubt at all that what the future of cell networks are is small cell..lightradio type solutions.
In regards to the article...I also disagree somewhat that the age of the pc era is ending.
In fact..i've recently bought HP. I think that business is under pressure and more people will make more use of smartphones. but for many that compliments a home pc. I don't know about you but i'm not going to sit on a smartphone doing everything i need and want to on the internet.
Not at all. What it does is provides an extension to that. I also disagree that tablets are going to replace the PC. Again..they take a dent out of the business but like notebooks..not everyone is going to use them exclusively.
And businesses certainly arent going to be replacing pc's with smartphones and tablets. Again..it's an extension of it.
What i DO see happening is mobile reaching the point where home and mobile connections become One. Where LTE is available enough to provide the speeds and reliability of a home connection as well. There is an ENORMOUS prize waiting for the carrier that can first bring that to market.
think of the cost savings to customers. They can undercut everyone.
They have GOT to get to the point however where the hetnets are dense enough. Where small cells are in every neighborhood.