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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

  • revf023s revf023s Nov 19, 2012 3:00 PM Flag

    I BOUGHT AT $2.40, $1.50, $1.20, $1.0, $0.9 AND THIS SHET IS A PIECE OF SHET! I AM FED UP!


    Enough is Enough! I am not selling BUT the management all should be feucking fired! Do they have a feucking plan?????????????????????????

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    • that's pretty much where i've bought given a few pennies. With simple averaging you're in about 1.40, with dollar cost averaging ..somewhat less than that even.

      That's a great price overall and certainly compared to where this has been over the years which has been as high as 100.00 share.

      I guess if our crystal ball was working accurately back at 2.30 ~2.40 we would have forecasted the stock to fall to 1.00 again but certainly mine wasn't nor was many peoples I would imagine. the company had a good year last year in what was Ben's 3rd year in office and that price was a value.
      I did however expect that Q1 was going to be somewhat soft...estimates at the time were for 0 cents and attributed to seasonal issues. Seemed reasonable to me at the time and caused me to be even more mindful of being prepared to average into this...which i would have anyway given that's my investing style.

      In any event..down it came to 1.50 and then to this range. I wouldn't have predicted this price nor do i think the stock is deserving of it even today. How many companies with 6+ billion in cash do you know that trade at 1.00?

      I have that answer. Zero. Well, except this one.

      And furthermore, companies with the technology that this one now has...the demand that is building out there in the mobile sector for it...and a cost cutting plan to cut another 1 billion in expenses over the next 12 mos. Again..about all i can say is this price is overdone and i think is based more on irrational fear based issues rather than the facts. It certainly doesn't help that the Goldmans + Bernsteins have their "conviction sells" on it but then again..they never got the call right at much higher levels either and so what they think means very little IMO at this point.
      Their ratings are probably based more on being wrong so often for so many years about this that at this point they hate ALU. Kind of can't blame them for that. ALU has managed to #$%$ off a lot of people i'm sure.

      But..in any event..i think 1.00 is oversold. 1.50 to 1.70 would seem more appropriate given all the factors today.

      And so..back to your and my averages..i think we're sitting in very good shape and are prepared for the building process that is ahead. I don't blame ben and paul for europe..which i do think caused most of this this year. And , they have and are cutting more costs as we move forward.
      first..500M this year and now another 800M euros to come. I think that will turn us back to profits and cash flow neutral status. I don't favor asset sales at this point and actually..don't even think we need to do that. I do favor though using some for as collateral to refinance the 2015 debt. Then, they can easily pay off 2013 and 14 with cash and we'd be looking at 2018 or 2020 then and be in very good shape to continue to rebuild. In terms of restructuring..i think this quarter will be more or less break even. Q1 will be on the ugly side..Q2..somewhat better..Q3..better and Q4..we're in good shape IMO.
      I ALSO think we may get more cost cuts by June of next year..much as how it played out this year.
      At this point though i think they want to get moving with this and not face more political and union issues. It seems better to tackle that in pieces. And..i'm assuming they will stay on course with wage freezes as well and losing people that way.

      We shouldn't forget though..we have some AWESOME products that IMO..are going to be high growth ones. And so we need to use caution cutting too much. We can grow into this as well.

      Frankly..as much as I'd like to perhaps be upset over the price..I'm not really. we get in this price range and it's easy to be down 20 to 30%. Losing 30 cents a share does that to you.
      But this was also 2 and 3 and 6 and 10 and 20 and...100 share in the past. and so..what's a dollar or two compared to all that? Not much. If anything, we're probably facing a time issue now. But..time goes by quickly as well and given this is so low priced i think being in it now is a wise move and will pay off nicely.

      I will tell you this. I'm in this first and foremost..because of the technology. I think it's first rate...and is going to really be next generation. I think Ben and Paul are doing an OK job. Not 100% great but not what people make it out to be either. I'm being more moderate in my views because of our products and the growth potential. Again..do we want to cut MORE employees and be left short handed?
      That would be worse. And, they can cut more if they have to. It's an ongoing issue and i think we need to let them do their jobs. Right now the market is probably worried about the stock being dropped from whatever indexes are at issue. The cac40 and Morgan stanley one i think it is.
      But..the market worried about the facebook shares coming to market too..right? And so far it's held where it is. Sometimes FEAR..oversells a stock and prepares it already for what is to come...if it comes at all.

      As for me..i want to see the 2015 debt tackled..and the next few quarters hammer out the cost cuts. By june..if we need more..i want to see more..maybe another 300 to 400M. And i think they will.

      I think ALU is going to be just fine. I think it's a great stock...a great company..at a very great price right now.

      And all things considered..i am very happy with my 1.35 cost average.

      This is a big investment for me. 25% + of my portfolio. And i'm sleeping well with this.

      Patience..is a virtue.


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • agree. about100% of all shareholders are not in pain. management mismanaged ALU. Management had NO vision in advance to handle market conditions, downturns and competition. The good news is they do have time, they do have assets, they do have products and they happen to be in place that says customers will be spending again. they have and/or are in expense cut mode. the sellers have all but sold. .. bottom line 6 months will be better and day to day till then ALU is a major drag...and management dropped the ball but they could get lucky... even a broken clock is right twice a day....

    • yup, as others have said how can you have over 100 Billion in revenue over the last five years and not profit???...... and keep you jobs as a CEO and CFO?

      Long the products and short the management

    • williamgpierce@bellsouth.net williamgpierce Nov 19, 2012 3:08 PM Flag

      I agree, i think that this S%^&^% should be taken off every financial market. It is a travesty to even as a company

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