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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

  • maui4me4now maui4me4now Jan 10, 2013 4:34 PM Flag

    China Mobile and Tim Cook With ALU = BIG MONEY with Goldman Sachs Driving The Bus


    The "good old boy's club" is getting in before ALU breaks out back to over 6.00 Go back and look at May 03, 2011 6.52! The Hedge fund money dosen't come in till 5.00 close 3 days in a row. This is 3 bagger at least. China Mobile is the catalyst, Goldman Sachs is CONNECTOR. JMO
    Good Luck To ALL the LONGS Shorts are TOAST The BASHERS are coming out in Force.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Cook does not care about ALU per se. What Cook cares about is a network that can support smart phones. He does not care whose equipment populates China Mobile's network. Right now, China Mobile uses equipment from many equipment sellers.

      And Goldman does not care about ALU either. Goldman was hired to provide financing, which they did, at about an 8% rate and a lot of patent collateral. Goldman collected a fat fee, and created a quality product (bonds), with enough collateral to make whole any owner of the bond(s) in the event of a default, thus protecting their reputation.

      If ever there was a business that was purely transactional, and cold hearted, it is the finance industry. And Goldman is at the very top of the heap of heartless bankers. They conducted a transaction with ALU, and it is done. Period.

      Consider that after the loan was announced, Goldman's equity research division ridiculed ALU with a rating of SELL, only a slight improvement over a CONVICTION SELL.

    • A noteworthy loss is one that forces investors to take notice, but is not necessarily the largest loss of a particular trading session. These are losses that might indicate a change in trend or might be caused by a catalyst that could lead to significant fundamental declines. As a result, I am looking at four such trends on Tuesday, trying to determine if more loss might be ahead.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to dr.serbanescu
      • You can bank on significant losses in 1Q and 2Q13. 4Q12 is more than likely about a break even Q, though it is not always possible to correctly predict how end of year CAPEX expenditures will play out.

        ALU saw big declines in its legacy CDMA products in 2Q and 3Q12. These are very high margin items. So with a bit of luck, there might be a bit of a recovery in CDMA sales for ALU in 4Q12, which could make 4Q much better than expected (2 cents per share consensus).

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