I put him on "ignore" after I decided to buy a little Apple (125 shares) the day before earnings. Baaad move. Sold 1/2 of it & put it into ALU, which adds to my boat load (at least for me) of ALU (148K shares). Certainly don't blame "antstod" for my Apple purchase, but he will remain on "ignore" until my other half of Apple comes back.
Well, maybe things have changed in the last 60 days or so. Maybe what happened is just the typical CAPEX end of year dump, even though it was not expected. Or maybe there was a some CDMA unique demand to make up for weakness in Q1, 2, and 3 2012. Or conversely, maybe, somehow, ALU did not benefit from whatever is helping its competitors....and the Q was bad.
Still, I am mildly positive on 4Q now. They said that they would be net cash positive at years end, and when combined with the reports of competitors, it is enough to convince me they might have a good Q. And you are right, a strong Q, say 5 cents a share, and good, BELIEVABLE guidance, and the stock goes over two dollars. Bad guidance = stock price disaster.
1Q seems to be the real hurdle. If they can just beat the consensus of a loss of 10 cents by a couple of cents, thus, hopefully representing 2Qs in a row that were good....assumes 4Q will be good....that would also really help the stock. But I recall the video interview of Ben when he said 2013 would be difficult. I could tell that it grated him to say it, and he quickly moved on from that moment
Well, all I can say is that 4Q had better not let us down. It would do serious damage to investor confidence. Yeah, ALU picks a big loan, then immediately begins burning cash some 30 days later. That would be pretty ruinous.
Not sure at all about what is going to happen tomorrow. But I think that today, without the ERIC news, ALU would have declined again. The chart was pretty grim the preceding 3 or 4 days. So I can see it resuming its downward move, though less dramatically tomorrow. The news was really good for ERIC, because the news pertained to ERIC. I am not sure about the lasting power of news that is strictly speaking not directly about ALU, but is being applied to ALU in a collateral, sort of guilt by association way...where everyone assumes that a rising tide will lift all Telecom ships, including ALU.