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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

  • buddhazenpeace buddhazenpeace Mar 12, 2013 8:46 PM Flag

    Alu will have a Profitable 1st qtr...2 to 5 cts

    Cost cuts will kick in this qtr as well as core routers....light radio and submarine contracts...
    Gross profit will be about 300 to 400 million...
    less...120 milllion restructuring and 80 million int exp

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    • When is this 1Q results coming out?

    • While i have a -5 to -6 cent estimate they might very well improve upon even that. Consider this. Last years Q1 was a -10 cent loss. We then have all the cost cuts already realized PLUS whatever they do this quarter to then offset that and so frankly..I'm at a total loss as to how analysts are now predicting -11 cents. It seems as if what they're doing is factoring in the worsening margins from last year BUT those bad margins were already present in Q 1 last year anyway. Q4 2011 was around 35% gross margin while Q1 went down near 30. Now as of q4 2012 we were BACK at 30 and so it's really an apples to apples comparison to now just take the cost cuts. The funny thing is..budda just might BE RIGHT with his estimate in that case because if they were to really cut a lot this quarter...you could conceivably have that be the case. At this point though i'm going to stay with the -5 to -6 because of the new CEO situation and say that probably..in a best case scenario..it will be -1 to break even. Which will be a great quarter given where we were. In order to see the analysts -11 cent estimate become reality business would have to be WORSE than last years Q1 by ALL THE COST cuts from then until now. And sorry..but that's just plain goofy to think that is the case. And so...what are they thinking? I don't know. I'd have to see it in writing.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Might be a black zero!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • You are dreaming! SPECULATING!
      The routers are out almost one year! Light radio is out 2 years! submarine business has always been profitable so it is not anything new!

    • If ALU makes a profit in 1Q13 of any amount, when they are expected to lose 11 cents a share...or about $260M...then that will be INCREDIBLY GOOD NEWS....

      The operative word being: INCREDIBLE.

      Very nice thought, but not happening.

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