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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Mar 13, 2013 12:53 AM Flag

    Caution longs with both Rumors twighlight and WB46

    Both are clearly shorts in this stock and out to discredit me and my very accurate estimates i have presented on this board. Their latest attempt is to now take a 50 cent estimate for this year that i had PRIOR to my Q3 and Q4 EPS revisions..both of which came in EXACTLY as i believed they would. Along with those revisions i then stated that i believed that Q 1 and Q2 this year would reflect losses (improving in Q2)...Q3 this year would be slightly profitable and Q4 this year...a very good quarter AND cash flow neutral. While it certainly reflects a good year that will develop it does not mean we will see 50 cents in profits this year. Where the deceit is on the part of WB46 is in his clearly knowing my estimates changed for Q3 and Q4 and Q1 and 2..but yet his assigning my 50 cent comments that were made prior to that to this years estimates. Sadly..he is practiced at the art of deception and as everyone knows who follows this board..my quarterly estimates have been coming in exactly on target as i revise them as the quarters proceed. For Q1 ..i currently believe that analysts estimates are way off and that we'll beat the -11 estimates by perhaps 5 or 6 cents and come in at -5 to -6 cents. I'll probably remain at this level and simply state that this quarter is going to be a bit tricky to estimate given the management changes that are taking place. The main issue is whether certain cuts will be enacted or whether they'll hold off and let the new CEO make those decisions. If they make the full 200M USD in cuts however i think we'll easily hit my target and beat by the 5 to 6 cents and maybe even a little bit better. Analysts with their -11 estimate seem to not be accounting for the fact that Q1 last year ALREADY saw the lower 30% margins and so last years -10 cent number...factoring in all the cuts that have taken place PLUS another 200M this quarter should be able to see a -5 cent target for this Q1. Or, maybe even better. As we progress 2013 will be a good year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • oh, blah blah blah...who gives a rat's #$%$? I am so tired of your paranoid rantings under various nicks....sail your yacht to the austrian outback and unplug for a while. geeze.

    • Trader, I agree.

      I remember someone on this board once correctly described these two (Rumors & WB) as the losers who have bought at a very high price and now bitter. They keep coming back to the house they once lived in. “These are angry ghosts and these ghosts scare the current inhabitants of this house. They are dead to the stock but they keep coming back, haunting the live holders.” So true!

      I find Rumors is actually worse than WB but Rumors also happens to be an imbecile so his lies are easily detectable. Rumors still doesn’t realize that whatever lies he's spewing I’m able to challenge them with no effort on my part. Perhaps I have the unfair advantage because of the kind of work I do, so I continue to enjoy making him look like a fool.

      • 1 Reply to cj_observer
      • cj - since you have for whatever reason decided to start attacking me personally, perhaps you could explain why. Angry ghosts? What does that mean? For a year I watched the stock price come down and losses mount, while management seemed lost to understand what was happening, and slow and tentative to react. My conclusion, which was just my opinion, was that the CEO was not up to the challenges and needed to be replaced. There was nothing startling about this as most analysts and investors (as shown by the stock price) must have concluded the same. And now the Board has finally reached this conclusion and done what I recommended (not because I recommended it, but because they reached the same conclusion). So what are you talking about and why are you making differences of opinion on the stock into a personal vendetta?

    • Actually, Trader is right.
      He did revise his estimates back in Dec 14, 2012 so let’s be honest and fair about it..

      [by tradestoxx11 • Dec 14, 2012 8:39 AM Flag
      And it's a GOOD one folks
      they're refinancing their next 3 years debt out to almost 2019.
      cutting 200M in costs every quarter for the next 5 quarters
      1400 contract workers ON TOP OF THE 5500 are being let go
      putting a strategy in place that should realize ALU another 300M in patent income per year
      Earnings appear to support 57 to 60 cents per share by end of 2014~early 2015]

      • 1 Reply to cj_observer
      • He's disputing a claim NO ONE EVER MADE. No one said he didn't revise his estimates. All that was said was that he predicted 50 cents a share which is a true statement, he did, at one point predict that. He then came in and said he NEVER predicted 50 cents a share which is a straight up lie. He is trying to manipulate people (like you) into thinking the argument was different then it actually is by creating a new thread about it and re-framing the discussion.

    • Twilight and Merideth out right Lie...constantly

    • I think, in order to cement your bona fides and keep them at bay, you should clue everyone here in to just how wealthy and successful you are. Remind them how you're a multi-billionaire, how you negotiated the purchase of your yacht down to $22.5 million, how you travel with a bodyguard, have 50K friends on Facebook, etc. You can also list all of the luxury items you own, and all the exotic places you travel to (all the while maintaining a 24/7 schedule here on the message boards).

      Just to be safe, though - don't tell them about your endless difficulties with basic math, your trials and tribulations in trying to figure out how many weeks there are in a year, your inability to understand compounding, your not knowing how to read a Form 4, your complete ignorance of how the stock market works, and your stunning lack of knowledge about how business works. Not to mention your endless changing of facts to suit your "at the moment" agenda. There are many others, but you know them all. You've been embarrassed so often with them, I'm sure you know them well. Too bad you don't seem to improve in those areas. Hope springs eternal, though - right?

    • Direct quote from you in the other thread, "I never said i expected them to make 50 cents profit..this year". That was a straight up lie. You can spin all you want but you flat out lied when you said that. It doesn't matter if you later changed your estimate, NEVER means DID NOT EVER, and you did. I am long this stock but I hate people that are so high on themselves like you are. You are a fool. Guess what, it's not all about you! Sorry your mommy made you think differently.

 
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