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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

  • tradestoxx11 tradestoxx11 Apr 23, 2013 11:55 PM Flag

    Why I don't feel good about this quarter...but i'm holding anyway.....

    Let me first start by saying that despite my negative feelings about the quarter....I'm holding my entire position anyway. As posted here..I DID go to a sell rating in the 1.70's. That gave me an opportunity to then buy back lower in the 1.30's to 1.50's. I also sold some options on a minor portion of my position giving me still some upside to those shares but some cushion should the stock do what it has done. The stock has pulled back considerably the last few weeks as estimates have come down. -11 cents to what some are now saying might be -14. that's not good...it doesn't make me happy. And really is contrary even to what I thought might happen this quarter as i and some others were down in the -5 range instead. NSN's report changed that for me and i now think that we'll be lucky to see -11. The biggest reason that doesn't make me happy is it means that every dime in cost cuts last year went to doing 1 cent worse this Q1 than last. I find that hard to fathom but it might very well be the case. This is not just weakness in the EU. It's the chinese threat. And they've targeted Europe. NSN saw 21% declines there. I also don't feel great about this quarter because i think there was very little incentive for management to really care what it looks like. Sounds odd? Consider this. Bens' leaving. he don't care. And would rather not let anyone go anyway. The new CEO? Better for him that the quarter is HORRIBLE so he can look like a saviour going forward..right? And so, why am i holding? for these reasons.
    First...my investment in ALU was never about this quarter. It's about a year from now. And 2 and 3 and probably 5 years from now. It's about their great technology...and about this company that i think CAN be great again. And it's about this entire business structure that i think needs reworking because the makings of SOLID profitability IS here. This is no kodak. Our "film" business didn't die. Mobile is RED HOT. This company has TOO MANY employees. 20k even. (cont)

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • How many different estimates are you going to make? You were saying weeks ago that you never get it wrong and your estimate was -5 to -7 cents, now you are saying -11 to -14.No wonder you 'never get it wrong' you have estimates that cover just about every possibility.

      • 1 Reply to brewhaus.rm
      • You were telling people they should buy and 'trust' your estimate of -5 cents because you never get it wrong. Now you are basically telling anyone that was dumb enough to listen to you that "Oops, I was wrong, you probably made a bad decision listening to me, but I never get it wrong. I may make 50 wrong predictions and tell you to believe me but 2 days before the actual earning I will change my estimate to match the analyst expectations so I can be right!!"

    • ALU WILL HAVE A LOSS OF 700 MILLIONS! Loss of -11 equals to 700 million loss!
      SEE IT?
      THE 2B ALU got are almost gone!
      If it did have good technology, it would be able to sell it! SEE iPHONE and AAPL, good product, sells easy!
      Product sells easy, stock fly to the sky!
      ALU has no product, can you grasp that for once?

      • 2 Replies to meredithmuar
      • cazzo.grande@ymail.com cazzo.grande Apr 24, 2013 2:27 AM Flag

        Why would GS #$%$ away cash to a company that did not have a plan they liked. For hopes to gain only PART of the patents!? Which you deem as worthless btw based off of your past and present statements. GS wants to possess a Portfolio filled with worthless products and patents? Its just garbage in their hands then. Like the Kodak patents that were thought to be worth billions, or is it the same case with Alcatel?... the portfolio can only mutter up 500 million. That's nothing exciting between two firms whom loaned upwards of 3 billion US dollars. The point is you are conflicting your interests. Somebody saw Gold in the company SUCCEEDING.... No bets on bankruptcy.

      • cazzo.grande@ymail.com cazzo.grande Apr 24, 2013 2:09 AM Flag

        Now you've done it Meredith. You literally went and compared Apples to Oranges.

    • cont... Every quarter when they report i look at their revenues and say to myself....why...isn't this company making any money? It's almost obscene to bring in the revenues they are and not make a dime. They remind me of this very rich person i knew once..who was always broke. Maybe if he cut down on the number of ferrari's he bought..that wouldn't be the case. It boils down to the makings of a REALLY great company that is profitable IS here. We need someone who is going to make that happen. Our new CEO can go a long way towards keeping any further stock decline at bay by simply making a VERY strong statement. About how he is going to turn this around. About how everything is now under review...and how things will be different. Because they can't remain the same. In some respects a quarter like this can be a real wake up call and they can drive even more change. To understand that ask yourself this. Did you ever have something happen in your life that did that for you? That finally caused you to act in a much more major way. This quarter is going to be a wake up call. A strong statement can actually drive this price UP on negative results. And i think our new CEO has every incentive now to make that statement. And so..while the INCENTIVE even is there to have this be a not so good quarter..the incentive is ALSO there now in that he has got to impress in his first conf. call. and take leadership. And i think people WILL give him a chance if he does. And so..those betting on further declines...you may or may not be right. If this was Ben delivering a -15 cent quarter..the stock would fall more. Maybe not with a new CEO..depending on what he says and how forceful he is about it.

      Why am i holding? Because i believe not only in him..but in ALU. I think this company can and will be very different down the road. All the ingredients are here to make a great company once again. This quarter is about having the vision to see further down that road.

      ~TS
      jmho

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to tradestoxx11
      • Ben Verwaayen Cares and he did the best he could,,,he was overwelmed.,,,I think Combes has been Running Alu since 1st day of the year......unofficially...and we will see a difference,,,,
        We had a lot of cost cuts since last years 1st qtr...last year we were caught unaware,,,I dont compare ALU to NSN,,,,I compare ALU 1st qtr this year to ALUs 3qtr last year where ALU Lost 6 cents....since then we have had 6 months of cost cuts that $300 Million.....ALU will show a Profit this qtr,,,because of cost cuts and largely due too sales which will be high as they had a very good sales 1st qtr.................

 
ALU
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