we are witnessing the telecom consolidation. with just over $6 bil market cap and the BK ruled out, ALU is ripe for the buy-out. the bidding should start at $4/sh and will go as high as $6~7 if it happens this year. if not, it doesn't matter cuz ALU will go up to $7 all by itself anyways within 12 months.
I feel that the future of ALU is not defined and like many other stocks that we have seen go up and down ALU will eventually find their calling in the market place. We do not know the future but it will be a great place and none of us know when, why, what, and where it will take place. Let it happen!!!!!!!!!!!!#$%$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Sentiment: Strong Buy
A bid for the whole company is a VERY long shot. However, a bid for a piece of it...like the Wireless unit is possible. NOK needs that unit so it might happen....and NOK might be compelled to pay high premium to get it.
If anything is going to happen they should already be in talks now. The M&A that is going on is being done before rates go any higher. So if this were to happen they should make an announcement in the next few days to get locked in on the lower rates before 2014 or this will never happen.
It is EXTREMELY unlikely that there will be a bidding war for ALU by any foreign firms.
The French government has designated ALU's patents, its Submarine Cable Unit, and who knows what else, as national strategic assets. They will not surrender those critical assets to a foreign firm (foreign country).
Moreover, in these difficult economic times (the French economy is still very weak). And the SOCIALIST French government will be probably be decidedly unwilling to watch a very large multinational depart....taking with it many, many jobs, and the company's revenue and profits.
Furthermore, ALU set up it LGS unit, which is run by Americans, at the insistence of the US government as a condition of the merger of Lucent and Alcatel 7 years ago, due to the classified work that unit does with the US military. The US government periodically reviews the status of that arrangement, which is REVOKABLE. Accordingly, this is a potential complication for a possible buyout/merger.
So ALU is NOT ripe for a buyout by any foreign (to France) firm. NOT EVEN CLOSE.
Probably not.. but ALU CAN and COULD sell it's wireless for Big.. Big dinero. AND it's wireless. You dump both those for 5 billion.. with return to 25-29% margins.. This will be a $15 stock in a blink of an eye..
now.. if this happens.. is another thing.. BUT.. they can make it happen without Frenchy say.