Do you really think the French would sell one of their largest companies to Nokia. especially at this point when they have turned corner? What rationale do you have for this? besides the fact that heard a rumor.
I do not think it will happen. the French government will not let it happen.
I estimate that the rights issued to US ADR holders are worth 19 cents a share at this morning's prices. These may go up or down in value but they will be sold on our behalf since we cannot exercise them. If we go down by less than 19 cents a share today, that is a gain.
I believe you are wrong. ALU has specifically stated that the Rights issued is only applicable in France and none for the US holders including JPMorgan (ADR sponsor).
The ADR is not a share but a certificate that represents a share. Since the Rights Issued would only be applicable in France the ADR's sponsor (JPMorgan) will not receive any Rights corresponding to the American shareholders. This means the dilution will affect us directly because we will not be able to exercise the Rights (like an option).