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Velti plc Message Board

  • smalltmeinvestor smalltmeinvestor Nov 16, 2012 5:05 PM Flag

    Does anyone understand this price fluctuation?

    This has fallen so much it just does not make any sense. 42% for the close today and 46% at the low. I just do not understand. This stock would have to rise by 72% to get back to the close before earnings. I do not even want to look at the highs in the recent weeks in comparison. Does anyone have any idea what would stop this decline? There have been about 15 million shares traded in the last two days. Just so oversold or is something else going on?

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    • The primary reason for the price share is that the management has squandered its credibility with Wall Street with the result that no one believes in Velti's figures. Everyone seems to focus on adjusted EBITDA but if is real EBITDA, it should translate into real cash - hence the obsession with DSOs being so long. The point being is that excessively long debtor book suggest that they arent collectible and hence the EBITDA attached to such DSOs is phantom. And so to the Greek and Balkan sale. They sold the DSOs etc for theoretically $25 million - but they are being paid next to nothing in year 1 with 60% payable in year 3. You might conclude that there is more hope of being paid than expectation. Hence the $6-9 million EBITDA associated with those DSOs is equally suspect - but they have never said anything other than express full confidence in the debtor book with little bad debt reserve. If they have been so deceitful about the Greek and Balkan debtor book in terms of collectibility and the quality of the business underlying it, what does it say about their general approach to the market? Lets not forget that they raised money only last year at $11 and then did a placement at $15.25 - where has all that money gone?

    • this market fluctuates on headlines so in order for Velt to rise it needs to come in with some positive headlines. the last headline was the earnings miss so as a result the stock dropped and will continue to do so until we get a positive headline

 
VELT
0.06260.0000(0.00%)Dec 13 4:00 PMEST

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