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Velti plc Message Board

  • belbezre@gmail.com belbezre Mar 9, 2013 9:47 AM Flag

    Breaking the Q3 statements down

    I'm sure they learned their lesson the hard way and hopefully the negative comments released on analyst day were planned to lower the expectation of the market before earnings. Looking at their statements from Q3 there is a big chance that they outperform all estimates. Their current ratio was acceptable, they have a lottttt of receivables in their pouch, their 28 MLN contract is billed on a monthly basis, they poured in a lot of cash in R&D which is due for a return and finally they made acquisitions. All these are cash generating factors and they all look very strong. Now on the expense side their A&S expenses were high, their AFDA was high which turned into write off's (we are done with that after divesting) so bottom line could be a big surprise if they were able to save on expenses. Note Q4 is their strongest Q historically.

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    • Much like SKUL, at this point Q'4 numbers are meaningless... it is all about 2013 guidance.... SKUL reported solid Q'4 numbers, was up 10% AH prior to the call and opened down 20% after disappointing guidance during the CC... Velt is in a similar situation... keep in mind the analyst day sound bite was EBITDA flat to down vs 2012 so i am not sure how that changes between now and next Tuesday... in summary this is what they have signaled to expect:

      Solid top line growth but at a lower % vs 2012 due to improved customer / market choices
      better DSO's due to the same
      Lower CAPEX
      Flat SG&A
      Improved cash flow
      EBITDA flat vs 2012...

      Anything better and we go up, anything worse and we go down.. could be a $2 shift... $ 4.50 - $2.50 IMHO...

      We will see. If it climbs anywhere near $4 prior to earnings, take it and get out.

 
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0.06260.0000(0.00%)Dec 13 4:00 PMEST