Reasons why I am still invested and see $10 - $55 within next 3 yrs
As announced as part of the divestiture of selected Greek, Balkan and other assets in the third quarter of 2012, Velti has made a strategic decision to forgo a significant amount of additional business in these regions. Although this business has historically generated meaningful revenue and EBITDA , it requires significant upfront cash investment and is characterized by long collection cycles. Velti will instead focus more on customers in key markets such as the Americas, Western Europe, Brazil, India and China in order to leverage growth opportunities and improve free cash flow.
In conjunction with this transition, Velti expects to significantly decrease its capital expenditures by more than 50%, which the company believes will meaningfully contribute to improved cash flow. Additionally, the transition is expected to reduce overall DSOs as DSOs on new revenue generated in 2013 are expected to be around 100 days.
In addition to its annual guidance provided below, Velti has developed longer term operating assumptions for the years 2014 through 2016, detailed below, that highlight healthy, focused growth and steady margin expansion:
• Revenue growth: 25 to 35 percent per year;
• Approximately one-third of total revenue from advertising with attendant margins of approximately 30 percent;
• Approximately two-thirds of total revenue from mobile marketing with attendant margins of approximately 62 percent;
• Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 4 to 6.5 percent per year as operating leverage increases;
• Free cash flow generation of approximately $40 million in 2014, growing at approximately 40 percent thereafter.
This company will look very different with stronger balance sheet, higher margins, better customers, innovative products and profitable in future. Give it some time to the management to implement the renewed strategy. Things don't change immediately, it takes time. No doubt this will be double digits stock this yr.