Millennial Media hit the tape twelve months ago when it IPO'd at $13/share. The mobile advertising company originally priced at $10, about midway of its price range, then jumped to $25 after only one day in the market. Although it climbed to $27.90, it has fallen off a cliff, and currently trades under $7. Even with this price erosion, there is still a 37% short float on the equity.
After reading the transcript of its presentation at the Barclays Internet Connect Conference, I was very impressed with its potential. Clients include 85 of the top 100 brands in Advertising Age. However, other pure play companies in the mobile advertising sector like Velti (VELT) and Augme Technologies (AUGT.OB), also show lots of potential, only to disappoint investors from lack of execution, or lack of adoption by advertisers. It's an unproven young industry.
What was supposed to be a growth technology business, is now being valued like the media sector. Most earnings and revenues are back end loaded for the fourth quarter when large corporations set advertising budgets for the next year. So although Millennial Media is growing, it's a very lumpy growth. Analyst estimates are for it to earn only $.13/share for 2013, and $.38/share for 2014. Sales growth is projected for 55% this year and 47% the year after. The limit order I have is for $3, a roughly 60% reduction in its current listing. That would give it a forward P/E ratio of 23 if I catch it at that price.